基于或有权益方法的安徽省区域金融风险动态分析

A Dynamic Analysis of Regional Financial Risk in Anhui Province Based on Contingent Equity Method

或有权益方法将资产负债表的静态数据与当前市场动态信息相结合,建立或有权益资产负债表,并进一步构造具有前瞻性的金融风险指标,对金融风险进行动态跟踪分析。本文利用安徽省三个部门(金融部门、非金融企业部门和家户部门)的或有权益资产负债表及构造的金融风险指标,实时评估安徽省区域金融风险动态变化。研究发现:三个部门的或有资产负债率都呈现上升趋势,其中金融部门的风险状况尤其值得警惕。

The contingent equity method combines the static data of the balance sheet with the current market dynamic information,establishes the contingent equity balance sheet,further constructs forward-looking financial risk indicators,and dynamically tracks and analyzes financial risks.This paper uses contingent equity balance sheets of three departments(financial sector,non-financial enterprise sector and household sector)in Anhui Province and the constructed financial risk indicators to assess the dynamic changes of regional financial risk in Anhui Province in real time.The study finds that the contingent asset liability ratio of the three sectors shows an upward trend,and the risk situation of the financial sector is particularly alarming.