农业保险的增收效应及其作用机制

Income⁃increasing effect of agricultural insurance and its mechanism

农业保险能够抵御农业风险、保障农业生产经营,进而提振农业经济、助力现代农业发展,影响农业收入。该研究以2007—2019年中国省级农业保险面板数据为基础,运用双向固定效应模型,从发展规模、保障水平及赔付水平三方面分析农业保险“造血”增收效应,并进行内生性处理与区域异质性分析;同时,基于助力现代农业发展视角,兼顾农业生产规模化、机械化、科技化、专业化以及绿色化五个维度,运用多重中介效应模型,就农业保险影响农业收入的“造血”增收作用机制进行考察。研究发现:①农业保险可促进农业收入水平的提升,具有“造血”增收效应,且农业保险赔付水平对农业收入影响效应最大,为8.869%;保障水平次之,为4.444%;发展规模最小,为0.016%。②提高农业生产规模化、机械化、专业化及绿色化水平是农业保险发展规模实现“造血”增收的有效路径,而对农业保险保障水平与赔付水平而言,仅有提高农业生产规模化与机械化水平是其实现“造血”增收的有效路径;当前偏低的保障水平与赔付水平抑制了农业保险助力现代农业发展进而提升农业收入的中介传导机制。③农业保险对农业收入的提升作用主要体现在中西部地区,而在东部地区农业保险并没有起到助力现代农业发展进而提升农业收入的“造血”作用。据此,需通过优化保险合约切实提升保险赔付效益,增强农业保险政策指向性以引致农户转向现代农业生产,实施多层级差异化保障水平以满足异质性风险保障需求等,推动农业保险高质量发展,助力现代农业生产与乡村振兴。

Agricultural insurance can resist risks,ensure agricultural production and operation,boost the agricultural economy,help modern agricultural development,and affect agricultural income.Based on the panel data of China’s provincial agricultural insurance from 2007 to 2019,this study used the two-way fixed effect model and multiple intermediary effect model to analyze the‘hematopoietic’income-increasing effect of agricultural insurance from three aspects:development scale,guarantee level,and compensation level,and carried out endogenous treatment and regional heterogeneity analysis.Meanwhile,based on the perspective of helping the development of modern agriculture and considering the five dimensions of agricultural production scale,mechanization,technology,specialization,and green development,this study used the multiple intermediary effect model to investigate the‘hematopoietic’income-increasing mechanism of agricultural insurance affecting agricultural income.The results showed that:①Agricultural insurance could promote the improvement of agricultural income and had the effect of‘hematopoietic’income increase.The compensation level had the greatest impact on agricultural income,which was 8.869%,followed by the guarantee level,which was 4.444%,and the development scale was the weakest,at 0.016%.②Improving the scale,mechanization,specialization,and green development of agricultural production were effective ways for the development of agricultural insurance to achieve‘hematopoietic’income growth,but for the agricultural insurance guarantee level and compensation level,enlarging the scale and improving the mechanization of agricultural production were the only effective ways to increase income.The low guarantee level and compensation level inhibited the intermediary transmission mechanism in the process of agricultural modernization and increasing agricultural income.③The role of agricultural insurance in increasing agricultural income was mainly reflected in China’s mid-western regions,while in the eastern region,agricultural insurance failed to play a‘hematopoietic’role in the process of agricultural modernization and increasing agricultural income.Therefore,it is necessary to optimize insurance contracts to effectively improve the benefit of insurance compensation,enhance the directionality of agricultural insurance policies to help farmers engage in agricultural modernization,and implement multi-level differentiated security measures to meet the needs of heterogeneous risk protection,so as to promote the high-quality development of agricultural insurance,agricultural modernization,and rural revitalization.