基于两种不同预测方法的广西人口预测

Population Projections of Guangxi Based on Two Different Forecasting Methods

基于2011—2020年的广西人口数据,本研究在MATLAB软件中运用BP神经网络和时间序列ARIMA模型对2021—2036年的广西农村人口、城镇人口和年末常住人口进行了预测.通过BP神经网络和ARIMA模型构造图形,经图形拟合度的分析,本研究发现BP神经网络预测效果良好,精度较高,这有助于预测今后一段时间人口的变化,能为有关部门制定相应的人口政策提供参考.

Based on the population data of Guangxi from 2011 to 2020,BP neural network and time series ARIMA model are used in MATLAB to predict the rural,urban permanent population at the end of the year in Guangxi from2021 to 2036.Through the BP neural network and ARIMA model and by analyzing the fit degree of the graph,this research finds that the BP neural network has a good prediction effect and high accuracy,which is helpful to predict the population change in the future,and provides a certain reference for relevant institutions to formulate corresponding policy measures of population.