服役飞机极端环境应力事故树分析方法

Fault tree analysis method for extreme environmental stress of aircraft in service

针对极端环境应力与飞机服役风险评估之间关系的复杂性和不确定性问题,采用事故树分析方法对服役飞机事故与极端环境应力相关性进行系统分析和探讨。首先基于极端环境应力导致飞机事故的相关数据库数据的统计分析,构建了飞机极端环境应力因素集及飞机极端环境应力事故树;然后根据极端环境应力作用机理分析及严酷度数学模型,计算极端环境应力导致飞机事故发生概率,评估极端环境应力直接相关严酷度,预测极端环境应力与飞机服役事故的关联度;最后总结形成了一种服役飞机极端环境应力事故分析方法。研究结果表明了积冰、雨、侧风、雾对服役飞机安全飞行影响极大,可为极端环境下飞机维保、签派及安全运营提供支持。

Aiming at the complexity and uncertainty of the relationship between extreme environmental stress and aircraft service risk assessment.The fault tree analysis method is used to systematically analyze and discuss the correlation between aircraft accidents in service and extreme environmental stresses.Firstly,based on the statistical analysis of the database data related to aircraft accidents caused by extreme environmental stress,an aircraft extreme environmental stress factor set and an aircraft extreme environmental stress fault tree are constructed.Then,according to the analysis of the action mechanism of extreme environmental stress and the mathematical model of severity,the probability of aircraft accidents caused by extreme environmental stress is calculated,the severity of direct correlation of extreme environmental stress is evaluated,and the correlation between extreme environmental stress and aircraft service accidents is predicted.Finally,a method for analyzing extreme environmental stress accidents of aircraft in service is summarized.The research results show that icing,rain,crosswind,and fog have a great impact on the safe flight of service aircraft,which can provide support for aircraft maintenance,dispatch,and safe operation in extreme environments.