基于超压和冲量的爆炸冲击波杀伤概率计算模型

Calculation model of killing probability of explosion shock wave based on ovepressure and impulse

基于人员爆炸伤的特点,针对爆炸过程中超压、冲量的变化对人员造成的损伤,建立了用于评估人员在爆炸威力场中伤亡概率的计算模型。结合爆炸伤特点,对人员损伤情况进行分类,分析冲击波杀伤和爆炸导致的人员抛投伤。根据爆炸物相关参数,计算TNT当量以及爆炸威力场中的超压和冲量变化,采用PROBIT方法对人员伤亡概率进行评估。在此基础上,首先,分析了江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3·21”特别重大爆炸事故。结果表明,在此次爆炸事故中,由该模型计算得到的安全距离与实际情况相符。然后,对某型弹药的战场冲击波杀伤概率进行了评估,并对四种伤情特点进行了分析。该模型可用于快速计算爆炸时超压和冲量变化导致人员伤亡的概率,对于评估爆炸安全事故中的人员伤亡情况以及战场中的爆炸致伤情况有一定参考意义。

Based on the characteristics of the explosion injuries on the human body, a calculation model for evaluating the casualty probability of people in the explosion power field is established, which is directed against the damage caused by the changes of overpressure and impulse during explosion. By combining with the characteristics of explosion injuries, the human injuries are classified, and the human impact injuries and throwing injuries caused by explosion are analyzed. In addition, the TNT equivalent and the overpressure and impulse changes in the explosion power field are calculated according to the relevant parameters of explosives. Subsequently, the PROBIT method is used to evaluate the probability of casualties. Based on this calculation model, the "3.21" special major explosion accident of Jiangsu Xiangshui Tianjiayi Chemical Co., Ltd. is analyzed. It’s shown that the safety distance calculated by the model is consistent with the actual situation in the explosion accident. Besides, the killing probability of shock wave of a certain type of ammunition is evaluated, and the characteristics of four kinds of injuries are analyzed. Furthermore, the model can be used to calculate the probability of casualties caused by overpressure and impulse change during explosion quickly, and it has referential significances for evaluating casualties in explosion accidents and explosion injuries in the battlefield.