服务业对资源枯竭城市转型的经济增长效应——基于23座地级市的面板数据

The economic growth effect of the service industry on the transformation of resource-depleted cities:Based on panel data from 23 prefecture-level cities in China

实现经济平稳健康增长是当前资源枯竭城市转型的重要目标之一,以服务业为驱动的发展模式对于提高经济增长、促进就业具有重要意义。基于2001—2018年中国23座资源枯竭城市面板数据,运用固定效应模型、门槛模型等探究服务业对资源枯竭城市转型的经济增长效应。结果表明:(1)服务业在不同时期对城市转型的经济效应存在差异,随发展水平提升呈现“促进—抑制—促进”变化趋势;(2)生产性服务业在不同时期对城市转型的经济效应存在“负向—正向—负向”演变趋势,生活性服务业随发展水平提升呈现“抑制—促进—抑制”的效应变动;(3)交通运输等传统服务业部门对城市转型的经济效应为负向,信息传输等高端服务业部门的效应为正向;(4)服务业对煤炭型和森工型城市转型的经济效应显著为正。

At present, realizing steady and healthy economic growth is one of the major aims of resource-depleted cities in urban transformation. The service-driven development mode is of great significance for improving economic growth levels and promoting employment in resource-depleted cities during the process of urban transformation. Based on panel data of 23prefecture-level resource-depleted cities in China from 2001 to 2018. This paper aims to analyze the economic growth effect of the service industry on the transformation of resourcedepleted cities by utilizing the fixed-effect model and threshold model. The results indicate that:(1) Generally, there are differences in the economic growth effects of service industry development on urban transformation in different stages of transformation, and the economic growth effects of service industry on urban transformation show a trend of "promotioninhibition-promotion" with the improvement of service industry development level.(2) Producer service industry placed an effect of "negative-positive-negative" trend on the economic growth of urban transformation at different stages of transformation, and the consumer service industry exerts an effect of "suppression-promotion-inhibition" on the economic growth of urban transformation with the improvement of consumer service industry development level.(3) Traditional service sectors such as transportation, wholesale and retail have a negative effect on the economic growth of urban transformation, while high-end service sectors such as information transmission and finance place a positive effect on economic growth.(4) The overall economic growth effect of the service industry on the transformation of coal cities and forest cities is significantly positive.