人口收缩背景下资源型城市住宅价格的差异化响应及影响因素

Differential response of housing price in resource-based cities and its influencing factors within the context of population shrinkage

以中国人口收缩现象突出的资源型城市为例,分析了2005年以来案例城市人口和住宅价格的时空演变特征,从住宅价格增幅和增速两个方面比较了人口收缩期内案例城市住宅价格的差异化响应特征,通过灰色关联模型分析了住宅价格差异化响应的影响因素。结果表明:(1)中国资源型城市人口收缩现象呈加剧态势,但人口收缩期内90%的资源型城市住宅价格呈上升态势,仅黑龙江东部、甘肃西北部、山西中部等少数资源型城市住宅价格小幅下降。(2)人口收缩背景下资源型城市住宅价格响应强度差异明显。相比之下,高强度响应等级以人口中期收缩的资源型城市、衰退型与成熟型煤炭资源城市、边境与省际边缘区资源型城市为主。(3)大部分资源型城市的人口收缩和住宅价格响应关联并不紧密,其他影响因素与住宅价格响应的关联相对更为紧密,并随着住宅价格响应强度的不同存在显著差异。

In this paper, resource-based cities(RCs) with shrinking population in China are taken as cases to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of urban population and housing price since 2005, and compare the different response characteristics of urban housing prices during the period of population shrinkage in terms of the amount and speed of housing price appreciation. In addition, the grey correlation model is adopted to identify factors influencing different responses of housing prices. The results show that:(1) The population shrinkage of RCs in China is getting worse, but the housing prices of 90% RCs are increasing during the period of population shrinkage. Only a few RCs, mainly in Eastern Heilongjiang, Northwestern Gansu and Central Shanxi, have seen a slight decline in house prices.(2) There are obvious differences in housing price response intensity in RCs under the background of population shrinkage. Cities of high response intensity grades mainly include the moderate population shrinkage cities, the declining and mature coal resource cities, the border RCs, and the RCs in the border area of provinces.(3) For most RCs, population shrinkage is not closely correlated with housing price response. Other factors are more closely correlated with the response to housing prices, and there are significant differences among cities with different housing price response intensity.