2001—2021年黄河流域农业科技园区的时空格局及影响因素

Spatio-temporal patterns and influencing factors of agricultural science and technology parks in the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2021

探究农业科技园区的时空格局及影响因素对于优化园区布局、促进区域农业高质量发展具有重要意义。本文以黄河流域国家和省级农业科技园区为对象,采用标准差椭圆、核密度估计、探索性空间数据分析、空间变差函数、地理探测器模型等方法,分析了2001—2021年园区时空格局、演化特征及影响因素。结果发现:①农业科技园区经历了试点建设(2001—2009年)、全面推广(2010—2016年)和创新提质(2017—2021年)3个阶段。②2001—2021年国家和省级园区总体分布态势逐渐一致,已经形成了河湟谷地、关中平原和黄河下游冲积平原3个主要集中分布区。③国家和省级园区全局关联特征表现不同,前者空间关联从随机模式向集聚模式转变,后者则一直表现为集聚模式;局部关联格局则均表现为“同向集聚增强,异向集聚减弱”的特点。④国家和省级园区格局演化均同时受结构性和随机性因素影响,包括产业结构水平、经济实力基础、交通便捷度、专利授权件数、农作物种植规模等主要因素,各因素间的交互作用大于单因素的作用,特别是产业结构水平与交通便捷度、经济实力基础与交通便捷度交互作用最为突出。本研究有助于丰富和完善农业科技园区布局理论,也对黄河流域园区相关政策制定和布局优化有参考价值。

Exploring the spatio-temporal patterns and influencing factors of the agricultural science and technology parks(ASTPs) is of great significance for optimizing the layout of ASTPs and promoting the high-quality development of regional agriculture. This paper takes the national and provincial ASTPs in the Yellow River Basin(YRB) as the research objects,and uses a range of methods that include standard deviational ellipse, kernel density estimation,exploratory spatial data analysis, spatial variation function, geographic detector model and other methods to explore spatio-temporal patterns, evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the ASTPs from 2001 to 2021. The research results show that:(1) the ASTPs have experienced three development stages in the YRB: the pilot construction(2001-2009), the comprehensive promotion(2010-2016) and the innovation and quality improvement(2017-2021).(2) From 2001 to 2021, the overall distribution situation of the national and provincial ASTPs was gradually consistent in the study area, and three main concentrated distribution areas have been formed, namely the Hehuang Valley, the Guanzhong Plain and the alluvial plain in the lower Yellow River.(3) The overall spatial correlation characteristics of the national and provincial ASTPs were different in the YRB, which were reflected in the transformation of the spatial correlation of the national ASTPs from a random pattern to a cluster pattern, while the spatial correlation of the provincial ASTPs has always been a cluster pattern. The local correlation characteristics of the national and provincial ASTPs in the YRB were all characterized by "the same direction agglomeration was strengthened, and the opposite direction agglomeration was weakened".(4) The evolution patterns of the ASTPs in the YRB were affected by both structural and random factors, including industry structure level,economic strength foundation, traffic convenience, number of patents granted, scale of crop cultivation and other factors. The interaction between any two factors were greater than that of single factors, especially the interaction between industrial structure level and traffic convenience or between economic strength foundation and traffic convenience were most prominent. This study will be helpful to enrich and improve the layout theory of the ASTPs,and also has a reference value for the related policy formulation and layout optimization of the ASTPs in the YRB.