清代嘉道时期(1796—1850年)黄河下游决溢时空格局与河工治理响应

Temporal and spatial distribution pattern of flooding of the Lower Yellow River and response to flood control engineering governance during the Jiaqing-Daoguang Period in Qing Dynasty(1796-1850)

历史时期黄河河患及其治理属于全球环境变化与区域响应研究的重要问题之一。基于多源史料建立清代嘉道时期(1796—1850年)黄河下游决溢基础数据库,运用交叉谱、核密度估计、标准差椭圆等分析方法,测算了黄河下游决溢与河工治理的相关性及其滞后性特征,进一步辨识二者在不同阶段的时空特征、响应过程及驱动机制。结果显示:清嘉道时期黄河下游决溢时空变化特征显著,以1825年为节点分为先增后减的两个主要发展阶段;空间分布具有较强聚集性特征,两个阶段累计高发区集中在河南怀庆府、开封府及江苏淮安府附近,黄河下游决溢重心始终位于东河。决溢与河工治理序列年际变化具有明显正相关关系,其显著振动周期为11a,且二者的响应间隔为1a左右。清嘉庆二十三年(1818年)后,黄河下游决溢与河工治理的时空响应存在明显“错位”的独特现象,即决溢重心向“东河”推移,而河工治理重心则向“南河”扩展。二者之间时空响应关系从“一致”到“错位”的转变,不仅显示清廷治黄理念由“积极革新”转向“消极防御”,也说明黄河下游已丧失清初以来“治河保漕”的重要政治经济地位,展现了其作为黄运之交重要地理区位的解构与重塑过程;而这一过程又孕育了咸丰五年(1855年)黄河于铜瓦厢发生重大改道的事件,可谓黄河流域系统中“河流决溢-河政理念-河工治理”时空互动关系的历史呈现。

The Yellow River flooding and its management in the historical period is one of the important academic issues on the global environmental change and its regional response. Based on multi-source historical data, a basic database of the Lower Yellow River flooding during the Jiaqing-Daoguang Period of the Qing Dynasty was established. Using analysis methods such as cross-spectrum, kernel density estimation, and standard deviation ellipse, the correlation and lagging characteristics of flooding and its management were calculated, and further identificated their spatial and temporal patterns, response process and driving mechanism in different stages. The results show that the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the area flooding during this period were significant. And the year 1825 as the node, divided the whole period into two main development stages: first increase and then decrease. Its spatial distribution has strong clustering characteristics. The cumulative high-incidence areas in the two stages are concentrated in the vicinity of Huaiqing Prefecture, Kaifeng Prefecture in Henan, and Huaian Prefecture in Jiangsu. The center of gravity of the area has been located in the "East River". The Yellow River flooding and flood control engineering have a significant positive correlation, the significant vibration period is 11 years, and the response interval between the two is about 1 year. After the year 1818, the gravity center of the flooding moved to the "East River", while the flood control engineering expanded to the "South River". This showed the unique phenomenon of "dislocation" in the governance of the study area. The change response relationship between the two from "consistency" to "dislocation" not only shows the process of the Qing court’s concept of yellow control from "positive innovation" to "passive defense", but shows the area have lost its important status of "governing river and protecting canal", showing the process of deconstruction and reconstruction as an important geographical location at the turn of the Yellow River and the Canal. This process gave birth to the event of a major diversion of the Yellow River in 1855. It can be described as a historical presentation of the interaction relationship between "Yellow River flooding, concept of river administration and river management" in the Yellow River Basin system.