中国1991~2018年突发环境事件时空特征及影响因素

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Environment Emergency Incident in China from 1991 to 2018

探究我国近几十年突发环境事件的时空变化规律和影响因素,能提高突发环境事件风险监管的有效性和精准性.基于1991~2018年31省市的突发环境事件数据,运用空间自相关性和时空地理加权回归模型分析突发环境事件的空间依赖关系和影响因素作用的时空异质性.结果发现:(1)突发环境事件在1991~1994年和2001~2014年两个时间段内存在显著的空间正相关性,且空间集聚性在逐渐增强,即中国省域突发环境事件存在明显的空间依赖特征而并非完全随机状态.(2)突发环境事件存在着非均衡的发展格局,“低-低”类型的省份集中在西部和东北地区,数量增多后减少;而“高-高”类型的省份表现为由东部、南部向中西部转移,数量减少后增多.各省市突发环境事件在空间集聚中的作用不同且不断变化.(3)各影响因素对突发环境事件的作用在不同时期和不同省域具有明显的时空异质性.经济发展水平对突发环境事件的影响表现为“负-正-负”模式;产业结构对突发环境事件的影响表现为“负-正”模式;污染排放对突发环境事件的影响整体来看呈现“正-负-正”模式;环境信访对突发环境事件的发生多表现为正向影响;法制环境对突发环境事件的负向影响在逐渐减弱;污染治理对省域突发环境事件的负向影响逐渐明显.

Research on the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of environmental emergency incidents in China in recent decades can improve the effectiveness and accuracy of risk supervision of environmental emergency incidents.Based on the data of environmental emergency incidents in 31 provincial regions in China from 1991 to 2018,this study used spatial autocorrelation analysis and a geographically and temporally weighted regression model to analyze the spatial dependence of environmental emergency incidents and the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors.The results showed that:(1)there was a significant positive spatial correlation between environmental emergency incidents during 1991-1994 and 2001-2014,and the spatial agglomeration was gradually increasing,that is,environmental emergency incidents existed in the provinces of China;clearly,the space depended on the characteristics and was not completely random.(2)There was an unbalanced development pattern of environmental emergency incidents in China.The provinces with“L-L”agglomeration were concentrated in the western and northeastern regions,and the number increased and then decreased;by contrast,the ones with“H-H”agglomeration shifted from the east and south to the central and western regions,and the number increased following the decrease.The role of environmental emergency incident in different provincial regions in the spatial agglomeration was different and constantly changing.(3)The effects of various influencing factors on environmental emergency incidentshad obvious temporal and spatial heterogeneity in different periods and different provinces.The impact of the level of economic development on environmental emergency incidents was shown as a“negative-positive-negative”pattern.The impact of industrial structure on environmental emergency incidents was shown as a“negative-positive”pattern.The overall impact of pollution emissions on environmental emergency incident presented a“positive-negative-positive”pattern.Environmental letters and visits had a positive impact on the occurrence of environmental emergency incidents.The negative impact of the legal environment on environmental emergency incidents was gradually weakening.The negative impact of pollution control on environmental emergency incidents at the provincial level has gradually become apparent.