乌克兰危机背景下全球液化天然气贸易格局重塑研究

Research on Reshaping of Global LNG Market Under Ukraine Crisis Context

乌克兰危机搅动全球地缘政治格局,影响国际供应链、贸易链、金融链,重塑以液化天然气贸易为关键变量的全球油气市场。乌克兰危机以来,俄罗斯管道气运能骤降,欧洲天然气缺口陡增,美国液化天然气出口大幅提高,亚欧市场资源竞争日益加剧,全球天然气价格急速上涨。中国作为世界最大的液化天然气进口国,全球液化天然气贸易格局重塑对中国保障国家能源安全和市场供需稳定、保持国民经济稳增长具有较大影响,需进一步加快拓展资源进口渠道、促进资源结构优化、深化天然气市场体制机制改革,推动打造独立、基于中国市场规则、反映国内用户需求的天然气基准价格,以应对全球液化天然气贸易结构性变局。

The Ukraine crisis has changed the world geopolitical landscape, affected the global supply chain,trade chain and financial chain as well as reshaped the global oil and gas market in which the liquefied natural gas(LNG) trade is viewed as a key variable. The Ukraine crisis triggers a sharp drop in Russia’s pipeline gas export and a surge in Europe’ s LNG import, which also leads to a large increase in LNG exports from the US. As a result, the competition for resources between Asia and Europe becomes intensified and the global natural gas prices keep rising. As China is the world’s largest LNG importer, the reshaping of the global LNG market has a great impact on China’ s strategic goals of ensuring national energy security, maintaining the stability of market supply and demand and advancing stable growth of the national economy. The study proposes that in order to respond to the structural changes in the global LNG trade, more efforts are needed including further expanding channels for importing resources, optimizing resource structure, deepening the reform of the natural gas market mechanism and creating an independent natural gas benchmark price that is based on Chinese market rules and reflects the demands of domestic users.