中非经贸合作对非洲工业化的影响与机制研究

Study on Impact and Mechanism of China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation on African Industrialization

本文采用联合国工业发展组织的工业竞争力指数作为评价非洲工业化的指标,运用系统广义矩估计的系数估计方法,测度中国对非直接投资与中国对非贸易在2010—2020年对54个非洲国家工业化发展的影响情况。研究发现,中国的对非直接投资与贸易均能显著促进非洲国家的工业化发展,其中贸易对于非洲工业化的影响更为显著。异质性分析表明,中国对南部非洲地区与东非地区的经贸合作可以显著提升当地工业化水平,对西非和中非地区工业化水平提升作用不显著,对北非地区不具有工业化提升作用。机制检验表明,中国对非洲国家的经贸合作可以通过建设工业园以及提升农产品加工来带动非洲的工业化,但以制造业服务化为路径的工业化模式并不适用于中非合作。

The study adopts the Competitive Industrial Performance Index released by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization to evaluate the development of industrialization in Africa. The coefficient estimation method of System GMM is used to measure the impact of China’ s direct investment in Africa and China’s trade with Africa on the industrialization of 54 countries in the continent from 2010 to 2020. The results show that both China’s direct investment and trade with Africa can significantly advance the industrialization of African countries and trade has a stronger role. The heterogeneity analysis finds that China’s economic and trade cooperation with South Africa and East Africa are likely to largely improve the local industrialization level;however, the cooperation does not play a significant role in promoting industrialization in West and Central Africa and does not have effect on the industrialization level of North Africa. The mechanism test shows that China’ s economic and trade cooperation with African countries can promote Africa’ s industrialization development through building industrial parks and improving the processing of agricultural products. It also indicates that the industrialization model of service-oriented manufacturing industry is not suitable for China-Africa cooperation.