寒冷地区住宅建材生产阶段碳排放预测模型

Carbon emission prediction model during the material production stage for cold zone residential buildings

面向中国碳中和目标,为在住宅建设领域实现碳减排,针对寒冷地区住宅建立建材生产阶段碳排放预测模型。该文详细说明了住宅建材生产阶段碳排放计算边界、内容和方法,并以寒冷地区17栋住宅楼的建材碳排放数据为基础,分析建材生产阶段碳排放组成和分布特征,采用线性回归与岭回归方法,建立住宅空间、形体设计参数与建材碳排放量的耦合关系,建立和验证了10种基于住宅设计参数的建材生产阶段碳排放预测模型。结果表明:基于建筑层数、标准层面宽和进深、标准层主要功能房间数的岭回归预测模型,与其他模型相比,拟合效果较好,预测误差较低。

A carbon emission prediction model was developed for the material production stage of residential buildings in Chinese cold zones for achieving the national carbon neutrality goals in residential construction.This study first analyzed the compositions and distributions of building material carbon emissions during production of 17 residential buildings.Linear regressions and ridge regressions were then used to relate the building material carbon emissions to the residential building space and volume design parameters.10 carbon emission prediction models were then developed for the design parameters.The results show that one ridge regression model based on the number of building stories,the floor plan and the primary room configurations most accurately predicts the building material carbon emissions.