俄乌冲突背景下亚太地区能源关系走向分析

The Trend of Energy-relations in the Asia-Pacific Region Under the Background of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

在解析亚太国家能源贸易依存关系现状的基础上,针对俄乌冲突爆发后西方制裁态势和地缘政治变化,分析了亚太国家能源关系受到的主要影响,包括供需和比价关系改变、能源合作项目受阻、贸易不确定性和交易费用上升,并对主要亚太国家间的能源关系走向进行了分析。认为俄能源出口“亚洲取向”战略将向南调整,日韩与俄罗斯的主要能源合作项目将面临中断,美国将带给亚太国家能源关系更多的对抗性因素,东南亚国家对石油输出国组织的石油依赖需要调整为更加平衡的进口策略。

On the basis of energy trade mutual-dependence of Asia-Pacific countries,this paper analyzes the main impacts of Russian-Ukrainian conflict outbreak and western countries’sanctions on the energy-relations among Asia-Pacific countries,including supply-demand and price structure changes,energy cooperation obstacles,trade uncertainty and transaction costs increase.Furthermore,this paper discusses the potential trend of Asia-Pacific countries’energy-relations,pointing out that Russia’s"Asia-oriented"energy export strategy will be attached more importance to the south side;energy cooperation projects between Japan,South Korea and Russia are facing disruption,and the United States will bring more confrontational elements to energy relations in the Asia-Pacific region;southeast Asian countries’dependence on OPEC oil needs to been adjusted to a more balanced import strategy.