全球价值链重构与国际贸易争端分析

Analysis of Global Value Chain Reconstruction and International Trade Disputes

通过构建包含国家和行业层面的全球价值链重构和贸易利益分配的贸易制裁计量模型,观察中国企业参与全球价值链重构下对外经贸关系的演变过程发现:中国在全球价值链中地位的相对提升对贸易制裁具有催化效应;中国全球价值链参与度的相对深化对贸易摩擦具有润滑作用;以上效应均表现出时间异质性特征,并在中美贸易争端案例中得到验证。研究结果认为,全球价值链重构引发了国际竞争格局新变化,国际贸易争端的根源是旧有全球经济治理的滞后。

The paper analyzes the effect of global value chain reconstruction on trade disputes by constructing the econometric model of trade sanctions at the national and industry levels,and explores the changing trend of Sino-foreign economic and trade relations under the global value chain reconstruction.The results show that China’s rising status in the global value chain has a catalytic effect on trade sanctions,and the deepening of China’s degree of participation has catalytic effect.The above effects show time heterogeneity and have been verified in the case of China-US trade friction.The results demonstrate that global value chain reconstruction has triggered new changes in national competition patters,and the root of the trade disputes is the lag of the past global economic governance.