中美经济政策不确定性对中国在RCEP成员国直接投资效率的影响

The Impact of Sino-US Economic Uncertainties on The Efficiency of China’s Direct Investment in RCEP

构建随机前沿引力模型,分析中美两国经济政策不确定性对中国在RCEP成员国直接投资效率的影响。实证分析表明:中国经济政策不确定性增加会显著抑制中国在RCEP成员国的直接投资,而美国经济政策不确定性却作用相反;中国经济政策不确定性从2014年开始进入上升阶段,中国对RCEP成员国的直接投资效率呈持续下跌趋势,且愈演愈烈;受投资领域差异以及地缘政治关系等影响,中国在RCEP成员国直接投资效率表现出三种变化情况。未来,中国应努力克服经济政策不确定性的影响,在实现自身经济行稳致远的同时,不断加强区域伙伴国互信互利,共建“开放包容、合作共赢”的RCEP命运共同体。

A stochastic frontier gravity model was constructed to analyze the impact of Sino-US economic uncertainties on the efficiency of China’s direct investment in RCEP partner countries.The empirical analysis shows that the increase of China’s economic uncertainty will significantly inhibit China’s direct investment in RCEP partner countries,while the us economic uncertainty has the opposite effect.China’s economic uncertainty has been rising sharply since 2015,and the efficiency of China’s direct investment in RCEP partners has been declining and getting worse.Influenced by differences in investment fields and geopolitical relations,the efficiency of China’s direct investment in RCEP partner countries shows three trends.