基于企业规模异质性的中国内外循环就业效应及影响因素探究

The employment effects and determinants in China’s dual circulation considering firm size heterogeneity information

本文基于新构建的区分企业规模的投入产出模型和结构分解分析方法(SDA),从“总量”视角、“效率”视角以及“增量”视角等多重维度,对我国工业行业的大型、中型和小微企业在中国内、外循环中就业效应的相关表现及其驱动因素进行了定量测算和深入分析.结果表明:1)2007年和2012年,工业行业所有规模类型企业通过内需拉动的就业不仅在总量上均高于外需,且单位内需对就业的拉动程度也高于外需.2)分企业规模类型看,小微企业是内需拉动就业的重要力量,且小微企业单位最终需求(不论是内需还是外需)对就业的拉动程度均高于大型和中型企业.3)对所有规模类型企业而言,就业系数变化是抑制就业增长的主要因素,最终需求规模的变化是拉动就业增长的关键驱动力.本文研究从定量角度论证了“双循环”新发展格局下,积极扩大内需对促进中国就业增长,尤其是对保小微企业就业所具有的现实意义,为制定合理有效的就业政策提供了参考.

Based on the newly constructed input-output model that distinguishes firm size categories(LMS model)and the structural decomposition analysis(SDA)method,this study quantitatively calculates the employment effects and determinants across three firm size categories in China’s dual circulation,from the perspectives of"aggregate","efficiency"and"increment".Empirical results show that:1)In 2007 and2012,the employment generated by domestic demand across all firm size categories is higher than foreign demand both in total and per unit of domestic demand.2)In respect of firm size categories,small and micro enterprises are the critical force in stimulating the employment generated by domestic demand;Meanwhile,the employment generated by per unit of final demand(both domestic demand and foreign demand)of small and micro enterprises has a more significant role in driving the employment than large and medium sized enterprises.3)The change of the final demand scale is the key driving force for employment growth across all firm size categories.This paper demonstrates the practical significance of actively expanding domestic demand in promoting China’s employment growth under the new development pattern of"dual circulation"from a quantitative perspective,and provides scientific support for formulating reasonable and effective employment policies.