长三角地区制造业、物流业与新型城镇化发展耦合效应研究

Research on Coupling Coordination among Manufacturing, Logistics and New Urbanization in Yangtze River Delta Area

为充分挖掘制造业与物流业、制造业与新型城镇化的协调发展潜力,推动“制造业—物流业—新型城镇化”向更高的耦合协调发展水平迈进。以长三角地区三省一市的面板数据构建三系统综合评价的指标体系,建立了三类二系统以及三系统的耦合协调模型分析三者间的耦合协调关系。各省市的制造业和物流业综合指数呈波动上升态势,新型城镇化呈平稳上升态势。长三角地区制造业、物流业与新型城镇化三系统的耦合协调水平逐年递增,但协调水平存在显著地域差异且有待进一步提升。制造业-物流业二系统协调水平较为落后,成为三系统耦合协调发展的阻力。

In order to fully develop the coordinated and balanced development potential in manufacturing, logistics and new urbanization and boost the “manufacturing-logistics-new urbanization” to higher-level coupling coordination, based on the panel data of three provinces and one city in Yangtze River Delta, this paper constructed an index system of the overall evaluation of the three industries, and built three coupling coordination models between two and one coupling coordination model among the three to analyze the coupling coordination among manufacturing, logistics and new urbanization.The comprehensive index of manufacturing and logistics in each province and city rises in volatility, and new urbanization rises steadily.The coupling coordination among manufacturing, logistics, and new urbanization in Yangtze River Delta keeps rising annually, but the coordination level with significant regional differences needs to be further improved.Low coordination between manufacturing and logistics hinders the coupling coordination among the three.