基于“七普”的“胡焕庸线”两侧人口集疏新态势及影响因素

The novel pattern and driving factors of population spatial distribution on both sides of the"Hu Line"based on seventh census in China

随着新型城镇化建设的推进,“胡焕庸线”两侧人口发展出现了新态势。本文基于第七次人口普查数据,依据地级尺度划定的“准胡焕庸线”,分析2010—2020年“胡焕庸线”两侧人口集疏模式的新特征,并探讨影响因素。研究表明:(1)“胡焕庸线”依然稳定,2020年东南半壁与西北半壁的人口比为93.5∶6.5;(2)西北半壁人口份额仍然微增,但是增幅较之前明显下降;(3)2010—2020年西北半壁人口集中化指数由降转增,西北半壁和东南半壁的人口分布集中化程度均有所提升;(4)东南半壁人口集疏分化不断强化,2010—2020年人口负增长区的面积占比已达54.22%,超过人口正增长区;西北半壁人口集疏的马太效应特征愈发明显,人口负增长区占比也已升至26.15%;(5)省会首府人口增长优势愈发突出,且西北半壁比东南半壁更为明显;(6)经济发展水平、城区人口规模等级、行政区划等级等因素与区域人口变动显著相关;西北半壁行政区划等级对人口增长的影响效应尤为突出。综合来看,西北半壁已经出现与东南半壁相似的人口集疏过程,人口集疏模式已突破了“胡焕庸线”。中国即将迎来人口总量拐点,人口城镇化进程逐步减速,密切关注“胡焕庸线”两侧人口发展的新特征,对推动全国各区域协调发展具有重要的战略意义。

The"Hu Line"is a geographical line connecting Heihe City and Tengchong City in China.It is densely populated on the southeast side of the"Hu Line"but sparsely populated on the northwest side.Since the implementation of New-type Urbanization strategy in 2014,the spatial pattern of population distribution on both sides of the"Hu Line"has changed a lot.We put forward the"Quasi-Hu Line"based on the boundaries of prefecture-level administrative divisions.According to the seventh population census data in 2020,this study focuses on the new characteristics of population spatial patterns and population growth patterns on both sides of the"Quasi Hu Line"from 2010 to 2020.We analyze the driving factors combined with the development of New-type Urbanization.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The humanland relationship reflected by the"Hu Line"was still stable,and the overall distributions of densely populated and sparsely populated areas were also steady.In 2020,the population ratio of the southeast side to the northwest side was 93.5∶6.5.(2)The population share of the northwest side still increased slightly,but the increment was significantly lower than that before 2010.(3)The centralization index of the population on the northwest side turned from decline to increase after 2010,which indicated the concentration of spatial population distribution in the northwest half was similar to that in the southeast half.(4)The spatial differentiation of population growth on the southeast side has been strengthened.The negative population growth area accounted for 54.22%of the southeast side from 2010 to 2020,exceeding the positive population growth area.The population growth on the northwest side had also changed from the"relative balance"model to the"Matthew effect"model,with the negative population growth area accounting for 26.14%of the northwest side.(5)The relative population growth advantage of provincial capitals was becoming much more prominent.The spatial polarization process of population growth slowing down or negative growth was formed in the surrounding areas of provincial capitals.In addition,such a process on the northwest side was more significant than on the southeast side.(6)The driving factors,including the level of economic development,the scale of urban population size,and the level of administrative divisions,significantly impacted population growth.For the northwest side,the level of administrative divisions had a particularly significant impact on population growth,while the impact of urban agglomerations was not noticeable.In general,the northwest side had begun to present similar population spatial distribution patterns and driving factors with the southeast side.In the context of population migration and urbanization,the novel patterns of spatial population distribution reflected a kind of"breakthrough"of the"Hu Line".With China’s total population turning to decline and urbanization entering the mid-late stages,more attention should be paid to the regional differences and coordination of demographical structures on both sides of the"Hu Line".