2000—2020年中国省际人口迁移格局的演化特征及影响因素

Spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of interprovincial migration in China between 2000 and 2020

准确认识和把握21世纪前20年中国人口迁移的地理格局和影响因素,是推动新型城镇化建设及区域均衡发展的关键科学问题。借助特征向量空间滤波泊松伪最大似然估计(ESF PPML)引力模型,基于第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据、2005年和2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,研究了2000—2020年中国省际人口迁移的时空演化特征及影响因素。主要结论为:(1) 2000—2020年间人口迁移格局总体稳定,具有较强的不平衡性和网络溢出效应,大量人口从中部、西部、东北地区迁移至东部地区;(2)人口迁移格局稳中有变,不平衡程度和空间集聚程度逐渐减弱,人口迁移和人口分布显现出南北分异趋势,东北地区人口迁出强度不断增强;(3)传统引力模型因素(人口规模、地理距离)、地区社会经济发展因素(工资差异、科技教育投入占比、医疗水平)、社会网络因素、环境舒适度(PM2.5浓度)以及生活成本(住宅价格占比)共同影响人口迁移格局;(4)区域经济差异对省际人口迁移的影响作用逐步弱化,人口迁移逐渐转变为对工资收入、高质量公共服务、环境舒适度等多因素考虑的决策过程,生活成本逐渐对人口迁移产生显著影响。

Understanding the geographical pattern and driving factors of China’s population migration in the first 20 years of the 21st century has become a pivotal issue in promoting the construction of the new-type urbanization and interaction development between regions during the 14th Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025). Supported by the data of the sixth and seventh national population censuses and 2005 and 2015 national 1% population sample surveys, this paper aims to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of interprovincial migration in China from 2000 to 2020. Relevant population geospatial analysis and the eigenvector spatial filtering Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation(ESF PPML) gravity model are employed. The following conclusions are drawn:(1) China’s population migration patterns were generally stable from 2000 to 2020, where notable imbalance and network spillover effects were also detected. A large number of migrants from central, western and northeast parts of China tended to move to the eastern region.(2) The overall migration patterns between 2000 and 2020 revealed several changing characteristics.The degree of imbalance and spatial agglomeration of migration patterns gradually weakened.Yet, a north-south differentiation emerged. It is also found that the out-migration trend of the northeast region increased with the elaspe of time.(3) The ESF PPML model indicated that gravity factors(population scale, geographical distance), regional socio-economic factors(wage disparity, proportion of investment in science and technology and education, medical care), social network factors, environmental comfort(PM2.5concentration) and living costs(proportion of housing price) drove the interprovincial migration pattern between 2000 and2020.(4) The influence of regional economic differences on interprovincial migration reflected a weakening trend. The pattern of population migration gradually turned into the decisionmaking of diversified demands for the economy, public services and urban amenities, while the living cost factor represented by housing price had played a gradually significant part. The conclusion of this paper provides policy references for the construction of the new-type urbanization and coordinated development between regions during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in China.