2010—2020年中国老年人口健康水平空间格局演变及其影响因素

Spatial pattern evolution of the health level of China’s older adults and its influencing factors from 2010 to 2020

把握中国老年人口健康水平空间演变规律对快速老龄化背景下的健康老龄化战略实施具有重要意义。本文基于第六、七次全国人口普查老年人口自评健康数据,采用探索性空间数据分析和重心—时空地理加权回归模型等方法,刻画2010—2020年中国省域城乡老年人口健康水平空间动态演化过程,揭示社会经济发展、人口流动、环境污染与保护等因素的影响变迁,主要发现:(1) 2010—2020年间中国老年人口健康水平总体上升,但城乡差异进一步扩大,城镇老年人口健康水平“东—中—西”递减格局趋于强化,乡村老年人口健康水平向“南高北低”转变;(2)社会经济发展是影响城乡老年人口健康水平及其空间格局演变的首要因素,但作用趋于减弱,乡城人口流动导致老年人口健康城乡差距进一步扩大;(3)环境本底因素作用减弱,环境污染因素作用增强,环境保护举措在城镇地区呈现健康改善效应。

As the speed of population ageing increases in China, understanding the spatial pattern evolution of the older adults’ health level is of great significance to the implementation of the healthy aging strategy. Based on the self-rated health data of the older adults from the sixth and seventh national censuses, this paper tried to depict the dynamic evolution of the older adults’ health level in urban and rural areas across different provincial-level regions in China from 2010 to 2020 by using exploratory spatial data analysis method. Then this paper built Gravity-GTWR models to explore the temporal and spatial variations in the factors influencing the older adults’ health, such as socioeconomic development, population migration,environmental pollution and protection. The main findings were as follows:(1) From 2010 to2020, the health level of China’s older adults increased overall, but the gap between urban and rural areas further expanded. In terms of the health level of the urban older adults, the pattern of "decreasing along east-middle-west" tended to be strengthened. As for the health level of the rural older adults, the spatial pattern has transferred from "decreasing along east-middle-west" to "high in the south and low in the north".(2) Although the role of socioeconomic development was weakened, it was still the primary factor that shaped and altered the spatial pattern. The rural-urban population migration widened the urban-rural gap in the health of older adults.(3) The role of natural environmental background tended to be weakened, while the role of environmental pollution was enhanced. The strengthened environmental protection measures started to exert positive effects on the health level of older adults in urban areas.