基于组合赋权-未确知测度理论的高速公路高陡边坡施工安全风险评价

Safety Risk Assessment of Expressway High-steep Slope Construction based on Combined Weighting-Unascertained Measurement Theory

为保障高速公路高陡边坡施工过程中的安全,降低施工安全事故发生率,有效解决高速公路高陡边坡施工安全风险评估的问题,提出一种基于组合赋权-未确知测度理论的高速公路高陡边坡施工安全风险评价新方法。根据高速公路高陡边坡施工的程序、特点及施工事故机理,选取岩土体类型、边坡爆破方式、边坡开挖方法及边坡防护方式等17个未确知测度函数评价指标,建立高速公路高陡边坡施工安全风险的未确知测度评价模型;采用序关系分析法(G1)和反熵法(AEM)分别对各评价指标的主观与客观权重进行赋值,再利用拉格朗日乘子法确定组合权重;按照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,得出高速公路高陡边坡施工安全风险评价结果。将该模型应用于贵州省内5条高速公路高陡边坡实际工程项目,所得出的5条高速公路高陡边坡施工安全风险评价结果基本与实际情况吻合。研究结果表明:高速公路高陡边坡施工安全风险评价的组合赋权-未确知测度理论模型适用且可行,可为高速公路高陡边坡施工安全风险评价提供新思维,具有工程实践指导作用。

In order to ensure the safety during the construction of high and steep side slopes of expressways, reduce the occurrence rate of construction safety accidents, and effectively solve the problem of safety risk assessment of high and steep side slopes of expressways, a method based on the combined weighting-undetermined measure theory is proposed. A new method for construction safety risk assessment of high and steep side slopes of expressways. According to the procedure, characteristics and construction accident mechanism of high and steep slope construction of expressway, 17 evaluation indexes of undetermined measurement function, such as rock and soil mass type, slope blasting method, slope excavation method and slope protection method, are selected to establish uncertain measurement evaluation model for construction safety risk of high and steep side slopes of expressways;the sequential relationship analysis method(G1) and anti-entropy method(AEM) are used to assign the subjective and objective weights of each evaluation index respectively, and then Lagrangian method is used to determine the weight of the combination;the grade is determined according to the confidence identification criterion, and the safety risk assessment result of the construction of the high and steep side slopes of the expressway is obtained.The model is applied to the project practice of high-steep side slopes of expressways in Guizhou Province,and the safety risk assessment results of the construction of 5 high-steep side slopes of expressways are basically consistent with the actual situation.The research results show that the combined weighting-undetermined measure theoretical model for the construction safety risk assessment of highway high and steep slopes is applicable and feasible,which can provide new thinking for the construction safety risk assessment of highway high and steep slopes,and has a guiding role in engineering practice.