从证据到信念:重解古德曼的新归纳之谜

From Evidence to Belief:Resolving Goodman’s New Riddle of Induction

古德曼的新归纳难题探讨如何从多个可能的类律命题中确证科学定律,曾引发诸多争论及解法。其中古德曼的投射法有效地揭示出由客观证据到科学定律确证的路径,却忽略了主体信念的中介作用。鉴于此,可尝试采取一条证据、信念到科学定律确证的新路径,结合与信念相关的心理学理论,证明信念可能贯穿于从证据到科学确证的全过程:影响人们对新证据的认识及对科学命题的判别,揭示科学定律的确证不是一蹴而就的,而是伴随着主观变化的过程。最后,通过生命科学的案例探析信念对证据及科学发现的影响。

Goodman put forward the new induction problem to discuss how to confirm scientific laws from multiple possible law-like propositions, which has led to many debates and solutions. Goodman’s projection method effectively reveals the path from objective evidence to scientific law confirmation, but ignores the intermediary of subject’s belief. In view of this, we attempt to adopt a new path from evidence, beliefs to scientific law confirmation with psychological theories related to beliefs, and tries to demonstrate that beliefs may be involved in the whole process from evidence to scientific confirmation: influencing people’s perception of new evidence and their recognition of scientific propositions, revealing that the discovery of scientific laws is not an instantaneous process, but a process accompanied by subjective changes. Finally, we explored the influence of beliefs on evidence and scientific discovery through cases life sciences.