基于碳排放情景分析的我国西南地区电力系统降碳保供对策研究

Pathways and Susggestions on Carbon Mitigation and Power Supply Security of China Southwest Region based on Carbon Emission Scenario Analysis

西南电网下辖的四川、重庆、西藏三省(市、区)是我国重要的清洁电力外送区域,未来对区域乃至全国实现碳达峰碳中和的重要性将愈发突出。同时,区域内经济社会高速发展,以及可再生能源高度耦合天气条件等因素,揭示出三地的清洁电力供应保障面临不确定性。本文以川渝藏电力系统现状特征为基础,通过设置降碳保供不同导向下的两种情景,结合二氧化碳排放趋势测算和对比分析,从电源侧、电网侧、负荷侧等方面提出了西南三省(市)电力系统兼顾降碳保供,以更好地实现碳达峰碳中和目标的对策建议。

Sichuan,Chongqing,and Tibet belong to the business scope of State Grid Southwest Branch,so they are called southwest region of China in this paper.As one of the most important clean power transmission regions,it will play more significant role in achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals for this region and the whole China.Meanwhile,factors including its rapid economic and social development in the future,as well as renewable energy production highly coupled with weather conditions will bring great challenges to clean power supply.Based on the current data and characteristics of the power system in Sichuan,Chongqing and Tibet,this paper sets two scenarios under different paths of carbon mitigation and power supply security.According to the results of carbon dioxide emissions of power system and comparative analysis,this paper puts forward initiatives and suggestions on power supply side,grid side and power load side respectively for the southwest region of China,in order to better coordinate the carbon reduction and power supply security.