基于ARIMA模型与DES模型的政府卫生支出预测

Government health expenditure forecast based on ARIMA model and DES model

基于2006-2019年辽宁省政府卫生支出历史数据,分别构建了差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型和二次指数平滑(DES)模型,对辽宁省未来五年政府卫生支出进行预测。结果表明,ARIMA模型与DES模型均具有较高的预测精度,并且ARIMA模型较DES模型有明显优势。该研究可为政府优化医疗卫生政策提供参考。

Based on the historical data of government health expenditure in Liaoning province from 2006 to 2019, autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model and double exponential smoothing(DES) model are constructed respectively to forecast government health expenditure in Liaoning province in the next five years. The results show that both ARIMA model and DES model have high prediction accuracy, and ARIMA model has obvious advantages over DES model. It can provide reference for the government to optimize medical and health policy.