中国式现代化的人口条件:机遇与挑战

Demographic Conditions for Chinese Modernization: Opportunities and Challenges

中国式现代化是实现中华民族伟大复兴的必经之路。现代化是一个庞大的系统工程,包括政治、经济、社会、人口、文化、国防、科技等多个子系统。人口是社会经济发展的长期性战略支撑要素,人口现代化是中国式现代化的应有之意和核心内容。中国式现代化的人口条件,实质是中国式现代化需要什么样的人口现代化支撑。人口再生产类型超前转变、人口素质现代化快速推进、较为充足的人口和劳动力数量是中国式现代化的人口机遇,为中国式现代化提供了良好的人口环境和优势;总和生育率持续走低、人口老龄化问题突出、人口性别结构长期失衡和人口城市化率较低是中国式现代化的人口挑战和人口现代化短板。站在人口角度积极推动中国式现代化,亟待有效解决中国人口现代化的短板问题。加强人口现代化的理论研究、加大结构性鼓励生育的力度、高度重视老龄化的战略机遇和加快推进以人为本的城市化,是有效解决人口现代化短板的重要举措。

Chinese-style modernization is the only way to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.Modernization is a huge systematic project, including politics, economy, society, population, culture, national defense, science and technology and other subsystems.Population is the long-term strategic support factor for social and economic development, and population modernization is the inherent meaning and core content of Chinese modernization.The population condition of Chinese modernization is essentially what kind of population modernization support Chinese modernization needs. The advanced transformation of population reproduction type,the rapid advancement of population quality modernization,and the sufficient population and labor force are the population opportunities for Chinese modernization,which provide a good population environment and advantages for Chinese modernization. However,the continuous decline of the total fertility rate,the prominent problem of population aging,the long-term imbalance of the population gender structure and the low rate of population urbanization are the demographic challenges facing China’s modernization,as well as the weaknesses of population modernization. In order to promote the smooth realization of Chinese modernization from the perspective of po-pulation,it is urgent to effectively solve the problem of the shortcomings of China’s current po-pulation modernization. Strengthening theoretical research on population modernization,strengthening structural efforts to encourage fertility,attaching great importance to the strategic opportunities of aging and speeding up people-oriented urbanization are important measures to effectively solve the problem of weak links in population modernization.