农业保险高质量发展与农民风险防范——基于费率区划的视角

High-quality Development of Agricultural Insurance and Risk Prevention for Farmers:Based on the Perspective of Insurance Rate Zoning

农业保险的高质量发展是保障粮食安全、确保农业生产能力的重要途径。风险区划与费率分区是农业保险高质量发展的具体要求,一省一价和分区定价是当前农业保险主要的两种定价模式。相比分区定价,一省一价模式存在低风险地区费率偏高、高风险地区保障不足的现象,将小区域单产分布估计的非参数法Density Ratio Model与Copula方法相结合、形成的适合中国地级市层面的费率拟定方法是更精准的匹配风险与费率的方法,显著提高了农业保险的质量。以大豆收入保险为例,利用Density Ratio Copula方法对山东省16个地级市的费率进行了分区拟定,差异化的费率结果较充分地反映出了地区之间农业生产风险的差异,显著提高了农民的风险防范水平。因此,“因地制宜”拟定农业保险费率有利于促进保险价格与风险程度的精准匹配,从而更充分地发挥农业保险的风险防范功能,进一步推动农业保险高质量发展。

The high-quality development of agricultural insurance is an important way to ensure food security and improve agricultural production capacity.Risk zoning and rate zoning are specific requirements for the high-quality development of agricultural insurance.One-province-one-price and zonal pricing are currently the two main pricing modes for agricultural insurance.Compared with zonal pricing,the one-province-one-price mode has the phenomenon of high rate for low-risk areas,and that farmers in high-risk areas cannot get adequate risk protection.Combining the Density Ratio Model,a non-parametric method for estimating yield distributions in small areas,with Copula,is a more accurate rate formulation method for matching risk and rates suitable for China’s prefecture-level cities,which can significantly improve the quality of agricultural insurance.Taking soybean revenue insurance as an example,the Density Ratio Copula is used to formulate the rates of 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province.The differentiated rate results of different prefecture-level cities fully reflect the differences in agricultural production risks between regions,and significantly improve farmers’risk prevention level.Therefore,the formulation of agricultural insurance rates according to local conditions is conducive to promoting the accurate matching of insurance prices and risk levels,which gives full play to the risk prevention function of agricultural insurance for agricultural production,further promote the high-quality development of agricultural insurance.