中亚地区土地与人口城镇化时空耦合特征

Spatiotemporal coupling of landscape-demographic urbanization in Central Asia

中亚作为丝绸之路经济带的重要枢纽,其土地与人口城镇化间的协调发展不仅影响中亚地区社会经济的可持续发展,同时能够推动“一带一路”倡议的实施。基于中亚五国首都2000—2019年城市土地和人口数据,采用城市扩张模式指数、人口集中指数、等扇分析法和空间耦合协调模型等方法,研究了城市土地扩张与人口增长的时空耦合特征。结果表明:(1)从空间演变特征看,中亚五国首都城市土地扩张模式类型主要以蔓延式为主,扩张模式指数整体呈先上升后下降趋势;人口集聚特征上,阿什哈巴德人口集中度呈上升趋势,杜尚别和努尔苏丹呈下降趋势,塔什干和比什凯克的人口集中指数在0.6~0.7之间波动变化。(2)从空间增长趋势看,比什凯克、阿什哈巴德和努尔苏丹城市土地与人口扩展方向基本相同,塔什干稍有偏差,杜尚别差异较大。(3)从耦合协调特征看,塔什干土地与人口间的耦合性和协调度都偏低,其城镇化协调发展处于起步阶段;杜尚别和比什凯克耦合性较好,但协调度变化较大,处于波动阶段;阿什哈巴德和努尔苏丹协调度较高,处于稳定阶段。

As an essential hub of the Silk Road Economic Belt, the coordinated development of landscapedemographic urbanization in Central Asia not only affects the sustainable socio-economic development of Central Asia but also promotes the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. We explored the spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of five Central Asian capitals from 2000 to 2019 using the urban expansion mode index,population concentration index, equal fan analysis method, and spatial coupling coordination model. The results are as follows:(1) From the spatial evolutionary characteristics, the expansion type of urban land in five Central Asian capitals is mainly sprawl type, and overall, the expansion mode index tends to increase and then decrease.Regarding population concentration characteristics, the population concentration index in Ashkhabad exhibits an upward trend, whereas that in Dushanbe and Nur Sultan exhibit a downward trend, and those of Tashkent and Bishkek fluctuate between 0.6 and 0.7.(2) In terms of spatial growth trends, the expansion directions of landscape urbanization and demographic urbanization are identical in Bishkek, Ashkhabad, and Nur Sultan, with a slight deviation in Tashkent and a significant difference in Dushanbe.(3) From the coupling coordination characteristics, the landscape-demographic urbanization coupling situation is poorly coordinated in Tashkent, and the coordinated urbanization development is at the initial stage. The coupling coordination situations are better in Dushanbe and Bishkek, but their coordination levels vary widely and are at the fluctuating stage. Ashkhabad and Nur Sultan exhibit high coordination levels and are at the stable stage.