地方政府换届对地方财政收入预决算偏离的影响

The Influence of the Office-Term Changes of Local Governments on the Deviation of Local Fiscal Revenue Budget and Final Account

建立现代预算管理制度是新时代财税体制改革的内在要求,而科学编制和规范执行是现代预算管理制度的关键环节。预算是政府干预经济的重要政策工具,在地方官员集中换届时期,理性的地方官员有动机策略性地利用预算工具实现其政治经济目标,进而造成预决算周期性偏离。利用全国30个省份的数据,研究发现预决算偏离具有随地方政府换届而变化的预算周期性,预决算偏离在换届前后呈现“先上升、后下降”的规律。换届前人事变更不确定性较高,中央监察力度较强,地方官员的经济行为更偏好“留有余地”;换届后人事变更已确定,中央监察力度减弱,晋升竞争和财政增收激励着地方官员选择“积极进取”的经济政策。为提高预算编制的科学性,进一步规范地方官员预算行为,需要改进官员晋升激励机制,完善经济目标责任管理制,规范财政收入预算管理,并强化对政府预算的监督机制。

The establishment of a modern budget management system is the internal requirement of the fiscal and tax system reform in the new era, while the scientific budget preparations and standardized implementation are the key links in the modern budget management system. Budget is an important policy instrument for the government to intervene in the economy. During the period of concentrated changes of local official terms, the rational local officials have the motive to strategically use budget tools to achieve their political and economic goals, which will cause cyclical deviation of budgets. By making use of the data of 30 provinces across the country, the findings of this study show that the deviation of budgets has a budget cycle that changes with the changing of the official terms of the local governments. The deviation of budgets shows a pattern of “first rising then declining”before and after the change of official terms. Before the changes of official terms, there is a high degree of uncertainty in the change of officials and the central supervision is stronger, the economical behaviors of local officials are more likely to opt for“ leaving some leeway”;after the changes of official terms, the changes of officials are decided, the central supervision becomes weakened, the promotion competition and the fiscal revenues increase jointly encourage local officials to choose the “ aggressive” economic policy. In order to make the budget more scientific and further standardize the budget behavior of local officials, it is necessary to improve the promotion incentive mechanism of officials, perfect the economic target responsibility management system, standardize the budget management of fiscal revenue, and strengthen the supervision mechanism of government budget.