稳增长视角下积极财政政策总量扩张和结构优化的动态选择

Dynamic Selection of Total Volume Expansion and Structural Optimization of the Proactive Fiscal Policy: From the Perspective of Steady Growth

积极财政政策兼具稳增长与调结构功能,不仅是经济高质量发展的必要措施,而且是深化财税体制改革的重要组成部分。利用DSGE模型的历史冲击分解反事实分析与DSGE-VAR脉冲响应,研究了积极财政政策工具的效果与特征。研究表明:积极财政政策在政府与私人部门杠杆间存在置换效应,通过总量扩张与结构调整间的协调能够有效提升财政政策空间;积极财政政策能够对货币政策的有效性提供支撑作用;财政转移支付通过需求端的短期促增长作用更加明显,而生产性财政政策则通过长期供给侧影响更有利于就业。因此,建议从三个方面优化和完善积极财政政策:一是在更加全面和长远的维度上考虑积极财政政策的可持续问题;二是进一步探索财政与货币政策的高水平协调机制,使两者充分形成合力;三是对于不同的财政政策工具,应考虑其时间与区域特征,采用不同的发展策略以发挥各自优势。

The proactive fiscal policy has the functions of both stabilizing growth and adjusting structure. It is not only a necessary measure for high-quality economic development, but also an important part of deepening the reform of the fiscal and taxation system. By making use of the counterfactual analysis of historical shock decomposition based on DSGE model and DSGE-VAR impulse response, this paper studies the effects and characteristics of the proactive fiscal policy tools. The findings show that the proactive fiscal policy has a replacement effect between government and private sector leverage, and the coordination between total volume expansion and structural adjustment can effectively increase the fiscal policy space. The proactive fiscal policy can support the effectiveness of monetary policy. The role of the fiscal transfer payment in promoting growth is more obvious through the short-term demand side, while the productive fiscal payment is more conducive to employment through the long-term supply side. Therefore, this paper suggests to optimize and perfect the proactive fiscal policy from the three aspects: the first is to consider the sustainability of the proactive fiscal policy from a more comprehensive and long-term perspective;the second is to further explore a high-level coordination mechanism between finance and monetary policy, so that a joint force can be formed by them;the third is to consider the time and regional characteristics of the different fiscal policy instruments, adopting different development strategies to give full play to their own advantages.