基于工程场景天然气管道定量风险分析与应用

Quantitative Risk Analysis and Application of Natural Gas Pipeline based on Scenario

高含硫高压天然气集输管道腐蚀性强、毒性大、涉及面广,存在的风险主要是管道泄漏引起了爆炸,对人员的生命财产和环境造成的危害等。本次研究是根据实际现场情况,采用定量风险评价,对发生在不同事故状态下影响程度计算分析,确定事故状态下影响半径及后果、在此基础上进行个人风险及社会风险定量分析,为管道建设及高后果区管理提供依据。

The high sulfur natural gas pipeline is highly corrosive, toxic and involves a wide range of risks. The main risk is the explosion caused by pipeline leakage, which is harmful to people’s lives, property and the environment. According to the actual scenario, this study uses quantitative risk assessment to calculate and analyze the impact degree under different accident States, determine the impact radius and consequences under the accident state, and conduct quantitative analysis of personal risk and social risk on this basis, so as to provide basis for pipeline construction and high consequence area management.