中国北方地区农村家庭清洁取暖政策的汞减排效益评估

Benefit assessment of mercury emission reductions under the cleaner heating policy for the rural households in northern China.

为评估北方地区农村家庭清洁取暖政策的汞减排效益,本文综合运用大气污染物排放清单编制方法和GEOS-Chem大气化学传输模型,编制了中国北方重点地区农村家庭清洁取暖汞减排清单,并分析因政策而产生的大气汞沉降削减效益.结果表明:“十三五”期间,重点地区共计替代民用散煤59.65×10^(6)t,其中,Hg^(0)、Hg^(Ⅱ)和HgP三种不同汞形态的减排量依次为8.64,1.79和0.11t,由此避免10.54t(不确定性区间:-9.65%~6.94%)大气汞排放.“煤改气”,“煤改电”和“其他改造方式”等不同方式的汞减排贡献率依次为51.20%、38.02%和10.78%.同时,清洁取暖政策使重点地区避免了0.49t大气汞沉降.研究还发现,清洁取暖政策的外溢效应使非重点地区削减了0.66t汞沉降.据此,本文提出清洁取暖政策的优化策略,以期为促进农村地区能源转型和汞减排治理工作提供参考.

To quantify the effects of mercury(Hg)emission reductions from the rural household cleaner heating policy(CHP)in northern China,the air pollutants emission inventory method and the GEOS-Chem model were employed to develop the Hg emission inventory and simulate Hg deposition reduction in the key regions during the 13th Five Year Plan period.Results show that the implementation of the CHP had avoided 59.65million tons of residential coal consumption and 10.54tons(Uncertainty Interval:-9.65%~6.94%)of Hg emissions in the study regions.More specifically,the Hg0,HgⅡand Hgp emission declined 8.64tons,1.79tons and 0.11tons,respectively.The CHP programs of coal-to-gas,coal-to-electricity,as well as the other heating energy transition technologies contributed 51.20%,38.02%and 10.78%of the total Hg reduction,and the CHP avoided 0.49tons of Hg deposition in key regions.Meanwhile,CHP’s spillover effect reduced Hg deposition by 0.66tons in the area around the key regions.Optimization strategies were proposed to further reduce Hg emissions and promote rural energy transition in the future.