可持续发展政策促进资源型城市绿色发展了吗?——来自黄河流域的证据

Does the Sustainable Development Policy Promote the Green Development of Resource-based Cities?——Evidence from the Yellow River Basin

资源型城市能否实现绿色发展是衡量中国经济高质量发展转型难易的关键。采用SBM模型对2005—2019年黄河流域81个地级市绿色发展效率进行测度,并将《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划(2013—2020年)》作为一项准自然实验,运用PSM-DID估计该政策对黄河流域资源型城市绿色发展的作用效果。结果发现:(1)该政策的实施对黄河流域资源型城市的绿色发展呈现显著的正向影响;(2)该政策在不同地理位置和城市发展生命周期上呈现异质性特征;(3)该政策可以通过人口密度、金融发展水平等影响资源型城市的绿色发展水平。因此,应当提高人才质量,发展区域金融,打破资源型城市的结构锁定,因地制宜制定发展政策。

Resource-based enterprises are an important pillar of the national economy,and the Yellow River basin is the protective barrier of national ecological security.Therefore,the green transformation and development of resource-based cities in the Yellow River basin is extremely important for China’s economy to achieve high-quality development.At the same time,the development of resource-based cities depends on regional resources and a large number of pollutants are produced in the production process,which is a major obstacle to the coordinated development of economy and environment.Therefore,whether resource-based cities can achieve green development is also the key to measure the difficulty of high-quality development and transformation of China’s economy.In order to measure the effect of the sustainable development policy on the green development of resource-based cities,this paper uses the SBM model to measure the green development efficiency of 81 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River basin from 2005 to 2019,taking the National Resource-based City Sustainable Development Plan(2013—2020)as a quasi-natural experiment,and PSM-DID is used to estimate the policy effect on the green development of resource-based cities in the Yellow River basin.The results show that:(1)The implementation of the Plan has a significant positive impact on the green development of resource-based cities in the Yellow River basin.Although population density,financial support and industrial structure upgrading have promoted green development,their impact is not significant;The level of financial development and opening up have a negative impact on the green development of resource-based cities in the Yellow River basin;Environmental regulation has a significant positive impact on the green development of resource-based cities;(2)The Plan presents heterogeneity in geographical location and urban development life cycle.First of all,the Plan has different influence on the green development of resource-based cities in different geographical locations and development stages,which is embodied as:downstream>midstream>upstream,mature>recession>growth>regeneration.Secondly,population density has a positive impact on downstream cities,but has a negative impact on upstream and midstream cities;In contrast,the level of financial development has a positive impact on the upstream cities,but a negative impact on the middle and downstream cities.Finally,population density has a positive effect on growth cities and a negative effect on mature,declining and regenerative cities;(3)From the perspective of mechanism,the Plan has a significant positive impact on the opening up,environmental regulation and industrial structure upgrading,but has a negative impact on population density,financial development level and financial support.Therefore,it is supposed to improve the quality of talents and develop regional finance,pay attention to technological innovation and break the structural lock of resource-based cities,and focus on differentiated management and formulate development policies according to local conditions.