信息化发展对新型城镇化的影响及其空间效应——基于长江经济带104个地级市的实证研究

Influence of Informatization Development on New-type Urbanization and Its Spatial Effect:An Empirical Study from 104 Prefecture-level Cities in Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于2010~2019年长江经济带104个地级市的面板数据,采用主成分分析法测算了信息化发展综合指数和新型城镇化发展综合指数,并构建空间计量模型实证考察了信息化发展对新型城镇化的直接效应和空间溢出效应。结果表明:(1)从全域回归结果来看,信息化发展对新型城镇化有显著的正向影响,而空间溢出效应不明显。其中,信息基础设施对新型城镇化的影响最大,其次是信息服务消费,而信息产业对新型城镇化没有显著的影响,但存在负向的空间溢出效应。(2)从分域回归结果来看,信息化发展对新型城镇化的影响存在明显的空间差异性,上游地区影响最大,中下游地区次之。(3)其他影响因素:物质资本投入和地区消费水平对新型城镇化发展均有正向推动作用,但不存在空间溢出效应。对外开放程度对新型城镇化发展没有显著的影响,且不存在明显的空间溢出效应。

Based on the panel data of 104 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2019,this paper used the principal component analysis to calculate the comprehensive index of informatization development and the new-type urbanization development.And then,a spatial econometric model was constructed to empirically examine the direct effect and spatial spillover effect of informatization development on the new-type urbanization.The results show that:(1)From the global regression results,the development of informatization has a significant positive impact on the new-type urbanization,while the spatial spillover effect is not obvious.Among them,information infrastructure has the greatest impact on new-type urbanization,followed by information service consumption,while the information industry has no significant impact on the development of new-type urbanization,but there is a negative spatial spillover effect.(2)From the results of subdomain regression,there are obvious spatial differences in the impact of informatization development on new-type urbanization.The upstream area has the greatest impact,followed by the middle and lower reaches.(3)Other influencing factors:Both physical capital investment and regional consumption level have a positive effect on the development of new urbanization,and there is no spatial spillover effect.The degree of opening to the outside world has no significant impact on the development of new urbanization,and there is no obvious spatial spillover effect.