人民币国际化水平测度及影响因素分析——基于双循环及国家金融视角下的实证研究

Measurement of RMB Internationalization Level and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors: An Empirical Study from a Dual-Circulation and National Finance Perspective

运用面板熵值法构建货币全球化指数(CGI),对比分析2010—2019年主要世界货币及人民币国际化水平的变化情况,在此基础上,从内循环、外循环及国家金融三个层面分别遴选人民币国际化影响因素的相关指标,进行影响因素的灰色关联度分析。研究表明,近十年来,人民币国际化水平的变化经历了“快速提升—震荡反复—缓慢增长”三个发展时期,依然处于初级阶段;人民币清算、货币合作等国家金融层面的制度支持对人民币国际化发挥了关键推进作用;内循环层面因素对人民币国际化的影响程度要大于外循环层面因素。基于此,可通过“加强国家金融层面的制度支持+畅通内外循环”的方式扩大人民币的国际使用场景,提高人民币国际化水平。

Using the panel entropy method, this study constructed a currency globalization index(CGI) to compare and analyze the changes in the internationalization level of major world currencies including RMB from 2010 to 2019.On this basis, gray relational analysis was conducted by selecting relevant indicators of factors influencing RMB internationalization from the three levels of domestic circulation, international circulation, and national finance.Empirical results showed that in the past decade, RMB internationalization has undergone three periods of development——progressing through rapid increase, repeated shocks, and slow growth——and is still at the primary stage.Institutional support at the national financial level, such as RMB clearing and currency cooperation, has played a key role in promoting RMB internationalization.Domestic factors have a greater impact on RMB internationalization than international factors.Therefore, international use of RMB can be expanded and the level of internationalization of RMB can be improved by strengthening institutional support on the national financial level and smoothing domestic and international circulation.