信息通信技术、贸易成本与出口贸易——基于中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析

Information and Communications Technology, Trade Costs, and Export Trade:An Empirical Analysis Based on China and Countries along the Belt and Road

数字经济时代以互联网为代表的信息通信技术(ICT)对国际贸易的发展具有重要作用。本文以ICT在中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口中的贸易效应为研究对象,以2005-2017年中国与沿线国家双边贸易历史数据为研究样本,在测算我国与沿线国家的双边贸易成本的基础上,采用扩展的引力模型和中介效应模型对ICT的出口贸易效应进行了实证分析。结果表明:2005-2017年间我国与沿线国家的双边贸易成本整体呈现波动下降趋势;贸易双方ICT的应用会显著促进我国对沿线国家的出口;分组回归结果显示,进口国国内ICT发展对我国出口贸易均具有显著正向作用,但出口国国内ICT发展在不同收入组中对我国出口贸易的影响具有较强的异质性;中介效应检验结果表明ICT能够显著降低双边贸易成本,进而扩大我国对沿线伙伴国的出口。

Information and communications technology(ICT) represented by the Internet in the digital economy era plays an important role in the development of international trade. This paper takes the trade effect of ICT in China’s exports to countries along the Belt and Road as the research object, and takes the historical data of bilateral trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road from 2005 to 2017 as the research sample. On the basis of measuring the bilateral trade costs between China and countries along the Belt and Road, the export trade effect of ICT is empirically analyzed by using the extended gravity model and the mediating effect model. The results show that the bilateral trade costs between China and the countries along the Belt and Road show a fluctuating downward trend from 2005 to 2017. The application of ICT between trade parties will significantly promote China’s exports to countries along the Belt and Road. The grouping regression results show that the domestic ICT development of the importing country has a significant positive effect on China’s export trade, but the impact of the domestic ICT development of the exporting country on China’s export trade in different income groups has strong heterogeneity. The mediating effect test results show that ICT can significantly reduce bilateral trade costs, thereby expanding China’s exports to partner countries along the Belt and Road.