长三角地区粮食安全脆弱性时空格局及其驱动机制

Spatial-temporal pattern and driving factors of food security vulnerability in the Yangtze River Delta

为了探究长三角地区粮食安全脆弱性的时空变化趋势及其影响因素,基于长三角各区县农业经济数据,借助VSD模型构建评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法和GWR模型等,对长三角地区粮食安全的脆弱性进行了定量分析.结果表明:1)2000—2019年,长三角地区粮食安全脆弱性的指数整体呈下降趋势,具体表现为:暴露性指数显著降低,适应力指数显著提升,敏感性指数变化较小;2)长三角地区粮食安全脆弱性的空间差异显著,整体呈由东南向西北降低,2000—2019年高脆弱和较高脆弱的区县级数量占比由38.02%降至12.78%;中脆弱的区县级数量占比由60.70%增至77.96%;较低脆弱和低脆弱的区县级数量占比由1.28%增至9.26%;3)恩格尔系数对区域粮食安全脆弱性有正向驱动作用,人均GDP和农业就业人员比例对粮食安全脆弱性呈负向驱动作用,各驱动因素具有明显的空间异质性.因此,相关政策制定要因“时”因“地”制宜,提升粮食安全保障水平.

In order to explore the temporal and spatial variation trend and influencing factors of food security vulnerability in the Yangtze River Delta,based on the agricultural economic data of each district and county in the Yangtze River Delta,it was constructed an evaluation index system with the help of VSD model,and then a quantitative analysis of food security vulnerability was conducted by using entropy weight TOPSIS method and GWR model.The results showed that:1) From 2000 to 2019,the overall vulnerability index of food security in the Yangtze River Delta showed a downward trend,which was manifested by a significant decrease in exposure index,a significant increase in adaptation,and a small change in sensitivity.2) The spatial difference of food security vulnerability in the Yangtze River Delta was significant,and the overall trend decreased from southeast to northwest.From 2000 to 2019,the proportion of high vulnerability areas and high vulnerability areas at county level decreased from 38.02% to 12.78%.The proportion of vulnerable counties increased from 60.70% to 77.96%.The proportion of county level in low vulnerable areas and low vulnerable areas increased from 1.28% to 9.26%.3) Engel coefficient had a positive driving effect on regional food security vulnerability,while GDP per capita and proportion of agricultural employment had a negative driving effect on regional food security vulnerability,and each driving factor had obvious spatial heterogeneity.Meanwhile,relevant policies were suggested to be formulated according to "time" and "place" conditions in order to improve the level of food security.