基于DPSIR模型的黄河中游水资源与经济协调发展评价

Evaluation on the Coordinated Development of Water Resources and Economy in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Basin Based on the DPSIR Model

基于DPSIR模型框架,明晰黄河中游地区水资源与经济协调发展机理,系统设计黄河中游地区水资源与经济协调发展评价指标体系。采用匹配性评价法、灰关联分析法与耦合协调度模型,评价黄河中游地区水资源与经济协调发展能力及明晰其时空分异特征。研究表明:黄河中游地区驱动力指数持续提高,经济发展水平得到有效提升;压力指数均呈现上升—下降—上升的变化趋势,应对用水需求压力的能力总体得到有效提升;状态指数均呈现上升态势,水资源供给能力得到有效提高;影响指数均持续提高,用水效率和排污绩效持续提高;响应指数均持续提高,产业结构不断优化且产业发展质量不断提升;总体来看,黄河中游地区水资源与经济协调发展能力呈稳定增长态势,河南水资源与经济协调发展能力最高。

Based on the DPSIR model framework, the mechanism of coordinated development of water resources and economy in the middle reaches of the Yellow River was clarified, and the evaluation index system of coordinated development of water resources and economy in the middle reaches of the Yellow River was systematically designed. The matching evaluation method, grey correlation analysis method and coupling coordination degree model were used to evaluate the coordinated development ability of water resources and the economy in the middle reaches of the Yellow River and clarify its spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics. The research shows that the driving force index of the middle reaches of the Yellow River has been improved continuously, and the level of economic development has been effectively improved;the pressure index shows a trend of rising-falling-rising, and the overall ability to cope with the pressure of water demand has been effectively improved overall;the state index shows an upward trend, and the water supply capacity has been effectively improved;the impact index has been improved continuously, with improving continuously the water use efficiency and sewage discharge performance;the response index has been improved continuously, with optimizing continuously industrial structure and improving continuously the quality of industrial development. In general, the coordinated development ability of water resources and economy in the middle reaches of the Yellow River shows a steady growth trend, and the coordinated development ability of water resources and economy in Henan Province is the highest.