多灾种下特大城市安全韧性影响评估研究与实践

Research and Practice on Safety Resilience Impact Assessment Technology for Metropolitan Cities under Multi-disasters

针对灾害发生发展全过程中对城市的功能影响缺乏有效的评价方法和体系,以及对于城市综合灾害防御和防灾韧性城市建设的指导存在不足,研究运用层次分析法,提出了基于模糊评价的数学模型,建立了多层级指标的权重向量和判断矩阵,实现了多层次、多因素的评估需求。研究根据城市安全韧性影响的评估指标体系,实现了评估指标的层级架构并计算其权重。运用相关研究成果针对某特大城市开展案例研究,并针对其薄弱环节提出提升措施和优化建议。

In view of the lack of effective evaluation methods and systems for the functional impact on the city in the whole process of disaster occurrence and development,as well as the deficiencies in the guidance of urban comprehensive disaster prevention and disaster prevention and resilient city construction,we use analytic hierarchy process,put forward a mathematical model based on Fuzzy evaluation,establishe the weight vector and judgment matrix of multi-level indicators,and realize multi-level Multifactor assessment needs.Based on the urban safety resilience impact assessment index system,the hierarchical structure of the assessment index is realized and its weight is calculated.By using the relevant research results to carry out a case study for a mega city,improvement measures and optimization suggestions for its weak links are put forward.