海岸带综合防灾安全疏散系统风险评估及优化——以厦门市为例

Risk Assessment and Optimization of Safe Evacuation System from the Perspective of Comprehensive Disaster Prevention in Coastal Zone:A Case Study on Xiamen

海岸带处于海陆交界的特殊地带,受自然和人为因素的影响,极易发生各类灾害。如何做好防灾减灾尤其是安全疏散工作,是海岸带区域“陆海统筹”的一项重要工作内容。首先,通过分析海岸带区域的灾害特征提取出台风、洪涝、地震和火灾四类典型灾害;其次,以点(疏散人群)、线(疏散通道)、面(疏散场所)要素梳理安全疏散系统空间构成;随后,以四类典型灾害为例,基于自然灾害风险指数法构建综合防灾视角下的安全疏散系统风险评估模型,包含致灾因子危险性(H)、承灾体暴露性(E)、孕灾环境敏感性(V)和安全疏散能力(C),并进一步将其解构为包含1个目标层、4个准则层、14个方案层和35个指标层的四级评估指标体系;最后,对厦门市进行实证研究,分析风险评估结果并总结特征,在韧性城市理念的指导下提出构建安全疏散空间体系、建立灾害应急管理机制的安全疏散系统优化策略。

The coastal zone is a special region at the junction of sea and land,affected by natural and human factors,it is prone to various disasters.How to do a good job in disaster prevention and reduction,especially safe evacuation,is an important work of Land and Sea Coordination in the coastal zone.Firstly,by analyzing the disaster characteristics of coastal zone,four typical disasters are extracted,concluding typhoon,flood,earthquake and fire.Secondly,the spatial compositions of the safe evacuation system are sorted out with the elements of point(evacuation crowd),line(evacuation passage)and surface(evacuation place).Thirdly,taking four types of typical disasters as examples,based on the natural disaster risk index method,a risk assessment model of safe evacuation system is constructed from the perspective of comprehensive disaster prevention,including the hazard of disaster causing factors(H),the exposure of disaster bearing body(E),the vulnerability of disaster pregnant environment(V)and the capacity of safe evacuation(C),which further deconstructed into a four-level evaluation index system including one target layer,four criteria layers,fourteen scheme layers and thirty-five index layers.Finally,we take Xiamen as an example to conduct an empirical study.According to analyzing the results of risk assessments and summarizing the characteristics,the strategies are put forward to optimize safe evacuation system based on the concept of Resilient City which are constructing the safeevacuation spatial system and establishing the disaster emergency management mechanism.