基于VIKOR方法的广东省城市洪涝灾害韧性评估

Assessment of Urban Flood Disaster Resiliencein Guangdong Province Based on VIKOR Method

在全球变暖和城市化的共同影响下,城市洪涝灾害频发,韧性评估是城市灾害风险管理的关键环节。在综合考虑经济、社会、环境、管理四个维度的基础上,选取15个城市洪涝灾害韧性评估指标,采用熵权法和VIKOR方法构建评估模型,对广东省21个地级市的洪涝灾害韧性进行评估。结果表明:广东省洪涝灾害韧性等级分布主要从珠江口两岸城市向四周降低,韧性等级最高的为深圳市,韧性等级最低的为清远市;灾害韧性指数在空间分布上存在显著集聚,其中高-高聚类的城市分布在珠三角地区,而低-低聚类的城市分布在粤北地区;从灾害韧性在灾前、灾中和灾后的变化情况来看,深圳市、清远市、韶关市和揭阳市的变化幅度最小。根据城市灾害韧性敏感性分析提出优化建议,研究结果可以推动城市韧性水平建设。

Under the combined influence of global warming and urbanization,the probability of urban floods is more and more frequently,while resilience assessment is a key link in urban disaster risk management.On the basis of comprehensive consideration of the four dimensions of economy,society,environment and management,15 urban flood disaster resilience assessment indicators are selected,and the entropy weight method and VIKOR method were used to construct an evaluation model.to evaluate.The results showed that:The distribution of flood resilience levels in Guangdong province mainly decreases from cities on both sides of the Pearl River Estuary to the surrounding areas,and the highest city is Shenzhen,the lowest city is Qingyuan.Cities with high clustering are distributed in the Pearl River Delta region,while cities with low-low clustering are distributed in northern Guangdong.Shenzhen,Qingyuan,Shaoguan and Jieyang has the highest stability from the changes before,during and after the disaster.According to the urban disaster resilience sensitivity analysis,optimization suggestions are put forward,and the research results can promote the construction of urban resilience level.