考虑自信和后悔对寡头企业市场竞争策略研究

Research on market competition strategy of oligopoly enterprises considering self-confidence and regret

考虑企业过度自信偏好和消费者预期后悔心理对渠道成员决策的影响,基于Stackelberg模型构建了包含普通产品生产企业1和绿色产品生产企业2的双寡头竞争模型,旨在探讨存在过度自信和后悔预期下供应链的竞争决策问题.考虑到消费者理性和非理性特征,基于不同企业不同市场策略(先行或者后行)构建四种博弈模型.运用逆序方法对模型进行求解,讨论了自信水平、研发成本、后悔程度、绿色敏感对供应链成员决策的影响,并通过数值仿真对结论进行验证.得出以下结论:(1)制造商的过度自信行为对于供应链的影响取决于消费者预期后悔程度的大小.当该系数较小时,这种非理性行为产生的影响是正向的,而当该系数较大时,这种行为对企业效用具有很大负面影响;(2)消费者这种预期后悔心理对供应链是有利的,并且能够缓解过度自信产生的负面影响;(3)消费者理性与非理性特征对于企业市场进入时机不产生影响,普通产品企业1的最佳策略是先行进入市场,绿色产品企业2的最佳策略是跟随进入市场,彼此市场进入策略不产生冲突.

Considering the influence of enterprise overconfidence preference and consumers′expected regret psychology on channel members′decision-making,this paper constructed a duopoly competition model including ordinary product manufacturer 1 and green product manufacturer 2 based on Stackelberg model,in order to explore the competitive decision-making of supply chain with overconfidence and regret expectation.Considering the rational and irrational characteristics of consumers,Four game models were constructed based on different market strategies(first or last)of different enterprises.The reverse order method was used to solve the model.The effects of self-confidence level,R&D cost,regret degree and green sensitivity on the decision-making of supply chain members were discussed,and the conclusions were verified by numerical simulation.The following conclusions were drawn:(1)The impact of manufacturers overconfidence on the supply chain depends on the degree of consumers′expected regret.When the coefficient was small,the impact of this irrational behavior was positive,while when the coefficient was large,this behavior had a great negative impact on enterprise utility;(2)This expectation and regret psychology of consumers was beneficial to the supply chain,and can alleviate the negative impact of overconfidence;(3)The rational and irrational characteristics of consumers had no impact on the market entry opportunity of enterprises.The best strategy of ordinary product enterprise 1 was to enter the market first,and the best strategy of green product enterprise 2 was to follow into the market,and there was no conflict between their market entry strategies.