威慑战略激化网络空间冲突的认知分析

Perceptual Analysis of Cyberspace Conflict Intensified by Deterrence Strategy

威慑是典型的国家间互动,其主要目的在于阻止战争,这是诸多国家陆续将威慑理论引入网络空间的主要考量。但是,缺乏共同认知的网络威慑,不仅无法阻止战争,还有可能成为战争的导火索。这是因为威慑并不是通过军事力量的实际较量结果奏效,而是通过对较量结果的事前判断产生效果。从历史上看,威慑理论通常是基于破坏能力的降级,即一种军事手段只能慑止破坏性相对较低的战争样式。但是,网络武器出现后,对核武器、常规武器、网络武器的破坏性排序始终没有形成统一认知,导致一国的网络威慑行为可能被他国视为宣战行为。因此,实现网络威慑的关键在于共同认知而非实力。建立共同认知是一个艰难漫长的过程,在此之前,顺畅的沟通机制极为必要,这有助于双方最大限度地减少误判、增加互信。而任何提出网络威慑战略的国家,都不应该将打造战略迷雾作为拒绝沟通的理由。一旦某种威慑战略倾向于减少而非增加共同认知,其最终将导向难以避免的战争,从而宣告该威慑战略的破局。

Deterrence is a typical inter-state interaction,and its main purpose is to prevent war,which is the main consideration for many countries to introduce deterrence theory into cyberspace one after another. However,cyber deterrence that lacks common perceptions will be a fuse for war rather than a deterrent. This is because deterrence takes effect not through the actual result of the military power contest,but through the prior judgment of the contest result. Historically,deterrence theory is usually based on the degradation principle of destructive abilities,that is,a military means can only deter the relatively less destructive war. However,after the emergence of cyber weapons,there has never been a uniform perception of the destructive ranking of nuclear weapons,conventional weapons,and cyber weapons,leading to the possibility that one country’s cyber deterrence may be regarded as a declaration of war by other country. Thus,the key to achieve cyber deterrence lies in common perceptions rather than power. Building common perceptions is a difficult and long process. Before that,a smooth communication mechanism is extremely necessary to help both sides minimize miscalculation and increase mutual trust. Any country that proposes a cyber deterrence strategy should not take building strategic misdirection as a reason to refuse communication. Once a deterrence strategy tends to reduce rather than increase common perceptions,it will eventually lead to an unavoidable war,thus declaring the eventual breakdown of the deterrence strategy.