基于技术视角的页岩气项目实物期权模型

A Real Option Model of Shale Gas Project Based on the Perspective of Technology

我国页岩气项目在政府推动下迅速兴起,国有企业主导资源开发利用。然而,我国页岩气开采成本居高不下,需要优化投资决策。如何评价页岩气项目的经济可行性成为投资者面临的难题。我国页岩气开采技术尚未成熟,深部地层水平井分段压裂技术是我国页岩气开采独特的技术难题。已有文献没有充分考虑页岩气开采的技术因素,导致页岩气项目投资评价不够科学合理。因此,本文将技术因素纳入页岩气项目投资决策之中,构建页岩气项目实物期权模型,研究得出以下结论:一是在页岩气勘查评估中运用技术手段,优选初始产量较高,递减指数较低和开采时间较长的页岩气气田,降低页岩气项目的投资临界值;二是水平井分段压裂技术提高页岩气产量,准确的钻井轨迹减少水平井单位成本和钻进距离,增加页岩气项目的投资价值;三是我国页岩气开采新技术广泛应用,降低页岩气市场的期望增长率和标准差,减少页岩气市场波动,降低投资门槛。

Shale gas project in China is rapidly rising on the promotion of government.Resources are mainly exploited by state-owned enterprises.However,the cost of shale gas production in China is so high that social capital is needed.It is difficult for investors to evaluate shale gas project.Technology of shale gas exploitation is immature in China.Staged fracture of horizontal well in deep formation is a unique technical problem of shale gas exploitation in China.It is not fully reflected in literature,causing the evaluation of shale gas project not scientific and reasonable.Therefore,a real option model is built by considering technical factors into the investment of shale gas project.Some conclusions are drawn:(1)In order to reduce the critical value of shale gas project,exploration technologies are used to select shale gas fields with higher initial production,lower decreasing rate and longer operation.(2)Shale gas production increases by staged fracture of horizontal well in deep formation.Unit cost and drilling distance in horizontal well can be reduced by accurate drilling trajectory,and both increase the investment value of shale gas project.(3)New technologies of shale gas exploration are widespread in China to decrease expected growth rate and standard deviation of shale gas market,stabilize shale gas market and lower investment threshold.