糖尿病足患者发生伤口严重感染风险预测模型的构建

Construction of risk prediction model for severe wound infection in patients with diabetic foot

目的分析糖尿病足患者发生伤口严重感染的危险因素,并建立相关风险预测模型。方法回顾性分析本院2019年1月—2020年6月收治的200例糖尿病足患者的临床资料,并筛选出糖尿病足患者发生伤口严重感染的危险因素,依据各项危险因素建立相关风险预测模型。结果年龄(OR=2.971,95%CI:1.403~6.295)、病程(OR=6.693,95%CI:2.468~18.149)、血管疾病(OR=6.068,95%CI:1.898~19.400)、足部损伤(OR=2.333,95%CI:0.932~5.837)、神经病变(OR=4.545,95%CI:1.496~13.809)是糖尿病足患者发生伤口严重感染的独立危险因素,基于此5项独立危险因素构建风险预测模型并验证该模型,预测值基本等于实际值,一致性指数为0.835(95%CI:0.811~0.857)。结论年龄、病程、血管疾病、足部损伤、神经病变是糖尿病足患者发生伤口严重感染的独立危险因素,本研究构建的风险预测模型特异性和区分度较好,具有较高的临床应用价值。

Objective To analyze the risk factors of severe wound infection in patients with diabetic foot and to establish the related risk prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 200 patients with diabetic foot in our hospital from January 2019 to June 2020 were retrospectively analyzed.The risk factors of severe wound infection in patients with diabetic foot were screened,and the related risk prediction model was established according to the risk factors.Results Age(OR=2.971,95%CI:1.403-6.295),course of disease(OR=6.693,95%CI:2.468-18.149),vascular disease(OR=6.068,95%CI:1.898-19.400),foot injury(OR=2.333,95%CI:0.932-5.837)and neuropathy(OR=4.545,95%CI:1.496-13.809)were the independent risk factors of severe wound infection in patients with diabetic foot.Based on these five independent risk factors,a risk prediction model was constructed and verified.The predicted value was basically equal to the actual value.The C-index was 0.835(95%CI:0.811-0.857).Conclusion Age,course of disease,vascular disease,foot injury and neuropathy are independent risk factors of severe wound infection in patients with diabetic foot.The risk prediction model established in this study has good specificity and differentiation,and has high clinical application value.