Characteristics of the dynamic changes in active accumulated temperature in Sichuan,China in the last 51 years against the background of climate change

It is of utmost necessity to understand the dynamics of regional active accumulated temperature(AAT)to cope with the negative impacts of global warming on agroforestry development and food security and to provide a real-time and effective reference basis for regional agroforestry planning.The daily temperature data from 30 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1970 to 2020,and sea surface temperature(SST)index data from the Atlantic Multiphase Oscillation(AMO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)were used for the study.Sichuan Province was divided into the western region(WS)and the eastern region(ES),considering 1000 m above sea level as the boundary.The spatiotemporal characteristics of≥0℃ and≥10℃ active accumulated temperature(AAT0,AAT10)in WS and ES were analyzed comprehensively using 5-day average sliding,empirical orthogonal function(EOF),ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD),and multiple mutation tests.The results show that(1)AAT0 and AAT10 of WS ranged from 3034℃ to 3586℃ and 1971℃ to 2636℃,respectively,while the AAT0 and AAT10 of ES ranged from 5863℃ to 6513℃ and 4847℃ to 5875℃,respectively.The period around 1997 was a significant abrupt change,and the AAT in the province generally increased during the subsequent time period(2)AAT in the study area is mainly driven by the fluctuations of AMO,as reflected by the low-to-high variation of AAT coinciding with the jump of the cold-to-warm phase of AMO.Considering different time scale fluctuations in the past 51 years,the major cycle for both AAT0 and AAT10 in WS is 3.40 a,while the major cycles in ES are 3.64 a and 3.19 a,respectively with a sub-cycle of 7.29 a.AAT fluctuation has an insignificant periodic characteristic of 25.50 a on the interdecadal scale(3)The spatial heterogeneity of AAT in WS is prominent and is mainly reflected by the significantly warm conditions in the south of the WS region and relatively slight warm conditions in the north,as well as by the isolated cooling area in the form of"freezing point",i.e.,Xiaojin county.In contrast,the spatial variability of AAT in ES is more or less consistent,with the warming areas concentrated in the foothills of the western edge of the basin and a slight increase in AAT observed in the central part of the basin.