吉林地区M≥4.0的地震预警模型研究

Research on earthquake early warning model of M ≥ 4.0 in Jilin area

利用复发间隔公式和地震发生概率模型计算了吉林地区2006—2022年4.0级以上(M≥4.0)地震的相关数据,得到了研究区内4个震级档的平均复发间隔和发生概率,并以此建立了吉林地区M≥4.0地震的4级预警模型.利用吉林地区的地震数据对目前吉林地区4个震级档所处的地震预警级别进行预测显示:M≥4.0的地震目前不在预警范围内,M≥4.5和M≥5.5的地震处于C级黄色预警级别,M≥5.0的地震处于D级蓝色预警级别.该研究结果可为吉林地区的地震预警工作提供参考.

The recurrence interval formula and the model of probability earthquake occurrence were used to calculate the relevant data of earthquakes above magnitude 4.0(M ≥ 4.0) in Jilin area from 2006 to 2022, and the 4-level prediction and early warning model of the M ≥ 4.0 earthquake in Jilin was established by using the relevant data of M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes in Jilin area from 2006 to 2022.Using the seismic data in the study area to predict the current earthquake warning level of the four magnitude bands in Jilin area, it is shown that the earthquake of M ≥ 4.0 is not within the early warning range at present, the earthquakes of M ≥ 4.5 and M ≥ 5.5 are at theyellow warning level of C, and the earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 are at the blue warning level of D.The results of this research can provide a reference for earthquake early warning in Jilin area.