2023年国际原油价格走势前瞻

Oil price trend outlook for 2023

2022年,在乌克兰危机与全球通胀相互交织的背景下,国际原油价格高位剧烈波动。2023年一季度,市场逐步消化美欧对俄制裁的影响,预计布伦特油价将维持震荡调整,底部支撑在65~70美元/桶;二季度美联储结束加息,欧美经济衰退预期兑现,欧佩克维持减产政策,油价有望企稳,大概率在2023年上半年看到年内低点;2023年下半年,夏季出行旺季叠加中国疫情形势好转释放需求,欧洲入冬前加快天然气补库进度,提升“气转油”需求,全球通胀逐步回落,美联储降息预期升温,预计油价将触底回升。预计2023年全年布伦特油价波动区间在70~100美元/桶,均价为90美元/桶。油气企业需要继续加强对石油市场的分析和预测,统筹规划,提前布局,可适当利用衍生品工具对冲实货价格波动的风险。

In 2022, in the context of Ukraine issue and global inflation, the oil price fluctuated at a high level. From the end of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, the market will gradually digest the impact of sanctions on Russia. It is expected that Brent oil prices will remain volatile and adjusted, with the bottom supported by the expected price cap $65-70 per barrel. In the second quarter, the Federal Reserve will end raising interest rates, the recession expectation will be price-in, OPEC will maintain its production reduction policy, and oil prices is expected to stabilize;there will be a high probability of seeing the year low in the first half of 2023. In the second half of 2023, peak driving season combined with Chinese demand recovery, Europe will begin to build gas inventory before winter which increase the gas-to-oil demand, global inflation may gradually fall, expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate will cut rise, and oil prices is expected to hit the bottom. It is expected that Brent oil price will fluctuate between $70-100 per barrel throughout the year 2023, with an average price of $90 per barrel. It is suggested that oil and gas enterprises should strengthen the analysis and prediction of the oil market, focus on overall planning and advance layout,appropriately use derivatives to hedge the price-risk.