跨境资本流动的规律特点及对油气企业的影响

The regularities and characteristics of cross-border capital flow and its influence on oil and gas enterprises

跨境资本流动是经济金融领域的重要指标,是影响全球金融稳定的关键因素。历次美元进入加息周期都引发国际资本大规模回流美国;地缘政治冲突造成资本从新兴市场回流美国;一国经济有良好发展前景会吸引资本流入。2022年跨境资本流动呈现大规模回流美国、新兴市场资本流出压力加大、中国整体呈现资本净流入3个特点。结合历史规律综合分析,预计2022年下半年跨境资本仍将回流美国,新兴市场国家还将面临较大资本流出压力。跨境资本流动趋势将对利率、汇率、油价产生深刻影响,导致油气企业面临资源国债务违约、境外融资成本提高、汇率风险增大、油价下行等多重风险。建议油气企业建立相应预警机制,做好风险规避相关工作:一是研究重点资源国债务状况,防范境外资产安全风险;二是妥善安排融资币种结构,控制债务成本;三是加强跟踪研究,做好汇率风险管理;四是做好应对预案,防范油气价格大幅波动风险。

Cross-border capital flow is an important indicator in the field of economy and finance, and a key factor affecting global financial stability. The paper shows that every time the US dollar entering the cycle of interest rate increases leads international capital to flow back to the US on a large scale, geopolitical conflicts caused capital to flow back to the US from emerging markets, and the domestic economy has good development prospects to attract capital inflows. It finds such three characteristics of cross-border capital flow since this year as cross-border capital flows returned to the United States on a large scale in 2022, capital outflow pressure from emerging markets increased, and China as a whole showed a net capital inflow. Based on comprehensive analysis of historical regularities, it is expected that cross-border capital will still return to the United States in the second half of the year, and emerging market countries will also face greater capital outflow pressure. The trend of crossborder capital flows will have a profound impact on interest rates, exchange rates and oil prices resulting in multiple risks faced by oil and gas enterprises such as the debt default of resource countries, the increase of overseas financing costs, the increase of exchange rate risks, and the downward trend of oil prices. It suggests to establish an early warning mechanism to avoid the risks,study the debt situation of key resource countries and guard against the security risks of overseas assets, make proper arrangement of financing currency structure and control debt costs, strengthen follow-up research and manage exchange rate risk, prepare response plans to guard against the risk of large fluctuations in oil and gas prices.