云南省地表太阳辐射模型适用性评价及优化

Evaluation and Optimization of the Applicability of Surface Solar Radiation Model in Yunnan Province

由于当前辐射站点较少数据较难获取,且现有地表辐射估算模型在云南省的适用性不强,需要探究出适合云南省的高精度太阳辐射估算模型。利用气象和遥感数据筛选出海拔、日照百分率等7种因子构建出适用于云南省的多因子综合估算模型(multi-factor comprehensive estimation model,MFCE),并逐月计算模型中的参数及计算结果的精确度。MFCE模型各月相关系数均在0.7以上,比其他模型平均增长了0.3;均方根误差分布在16.21~33.73 MJ/m^(2),比其他模型均有所下降。MFCE模型估算结果及精度较传统模型均有很大提升,该模型的提出对云南省太阳辐射的研究以及太阳能的合理利用提供帮助和科学基础。

Due to the difficulty of obtaining data from few radiation sites and the low applicability of existing surface radiation estimation models in Yunnan Province,a high-precision solar radiation estimation model suitable for Yunnan Province needs to be explored.A multi-factor comprehensive estimation model(MFCE)applicable to Yunnan Province was constructed by using meteorological and remote sensing data to screen out 7 factors such as altitude and sunshine percentage,and the accuracy of parameters and calculation results in the model were calculated month by month.The correlation coefficients of the MFCE model were above 0.7 for each month,which increase 0.3 on average compared with other models.The root mean square error distribution is between 16.21 and 33.73 MJ/m^(2),which decrease compared with other models.The estimation results and accuracy of the MFCE model are greatly improved compared with the traditional models,and the proposed model provides help and scientific basis for the study of solar radiation in Yunnan Province and the rational use of solar energy.